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Photovoltaic generation power ultra-short term prediction method based on time series model

A technology of photovoltaic power generation and time series models, which is applied in the fields of electrical digital data processing, special data processing applications, instruments, etc., and can solve problems such as ultra-short-term prediction methods of photovoltaic power generation that have not yet appeared

Inactive Publication Date: 2013-12-25
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +2
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  • Abstract
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Problems solved by technology

However, there is no ultra-short-term prediction method for photovoltaic power generation based on time series model

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  • Photovoltaic generation power ultra-short term prediction method based on time series model
  • Photovoltaic generation power ultra-short term prediction method based on time series model
  • Photovoltaic generation power ultra-short term prediction method based on time series model

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Embodiment Construction

[0047] The preferred embodiments of the present invention will be described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. It should be understood that the preferred embodiments described here are only used to illustrate and explain the present invention, and are not intended to limit the present invention.

[0048] Such as figure 1 As shown, an ultra-short-term prediction method for photovoltaic power generation based on a time series model includes the following steps:

[0049] Step 101: Collect the historical power data of the photovoltaic power station, and perform normalization processing on the historical power data. The normalization processing formula is as follows:

[0050] x i ′ = x i - x min x max - ...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a photovoltaic generation power ultra-short term prediction method based on a time series model. The method is characterized by comprising the following steps of collecting and normalizing historic power data of a photovoltaic power station; establishing a fitting equation according to the normalized historic power data, and determining the order of a model according to the established fitting equation and residual variance, namely, the values of p and q; determining the value of A; establishing an auto-regressive moving average model. According to the photovoltaic generation power ultra-short term prediction method based on the time series model, by establishing the prediction model for the ultra-short term prediction of photovoltaic generation power through the historic power data, the fitting equation and the auto-regressive moving average model, so that the aim of short-term accurate prediction of the photovoltaic generation power can be achieved according to the exiting model and the existing data.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of photovoltaic power generation, in particular to a method for ultra-short-term forecasting of photovoltaic power generation based on a time series model. Background technique [0002] Solar energy is rich in resources and widely distributed, and it is the renewable energy with the greatest development potential in the 21st century. With the increasingly serious problems of global energy shortage and environmental pollution, solar photovoltaic power generation has become an emerging industry that is widely concerned and focused on development because of its clean, safe, convenient, and high-efficiency characteristics. During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, my country will add about 10 million kilowatts of installed capacity of solar photovoltaic power stations, 1 million kilowatts of installed capacity of solar thermal power generation, and about 10 million kilowatts of distributed photovoltaic power generation ...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F17/30
Inventor 路亮汪宁渤李照荣赵龙王有生刘光途
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA
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