Real-time prediction method for urban road traffic accident risk

A traffic accident and accident risk technology, applied in the field of traffic safety, can solve problems such as low accuracy and inability to apply real-time prediction of urban road traffic accidents.
CN104732075AInactive Publication Date: 2015-06-24SUN YAT SEN UNIV
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Patent Information

Authority / Receiving Office
CN · China
Patent Type
Applications(China)
Current Assignee / Owner
SUN YAT SEN UNIV
Publication Date
2015-06-24
Estimated Expiration
Not applicable · inactive patent

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Abstract

The invention provides a real-time prediction method for an urban road traffic accident risk. Calculation is carried out by extracting geometric alignment data of all observation objects in an observation set and historical traffic flow essential data and historical weather condition data n minutes before a traffic accident, the grade of traffic flow characteristic parameters and the weather condition data n minutes before the traffic accident converted into classified variables and the distribution probability of the grade are obtained, an urban road traffic accident real-time prediction model based on poisson distribution is built, the prediction model is calibrated through the determined grade of the traffic flow characteristic parameters and the weather condition data and the distribution probability of the grade, when the traffic accident risk of the object needing to be predicted is predicted, only the grade of the real-time traffic flow characteristic parameters and the weather condition data, converted into the classified variables, of the object needing to be predicted and the distribution probability of the grade need to be calculated in real time, and the traffic accident risk of the object needing to be predicted can be predicted through a calibrated formula.
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Description

technical field

[0001] The invention relates to the technical field of traffic safety, and more specifically, to a method for real-time prediction of urban road traffic accident risk. Background technique

[0002] With the continuous development of our country's social economy and the substantial increase of the number of domestic motor vehicles, the number of road traffic accidents in our country is also showing an increasing trend. In 2012, the number of road traffic accidents in my country was 204,000, and the casualties caused by road traffic accidents reached 284,000. This shows that my country's road traffic safety situation is still very serious. As an important part of my country's road traffic system, urban roads are essential public infrastructure for people's lives, and their traffic accidents account for more than 40% of the total accidents every year. The prediction of urban road traffic accidents can estimate and speculate the risk state of the road, find out...

Claims

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