Modeling method of traffic prediction

Abstract

The invention discloses a model method of a traffic prediction. The method comprises the following steps of: (1) establishing a road traffic basic facility geographical information database, storing and updating traffic planning schemes, and establishing intersection delay determination; (2) establishing an urban planning construction geographical information database, storing regulatory detailed plans of each area, and utilizing an original unit method to construct traffic generation cases; (3) calling data of the road traffic basic facility geographical information database and the urban planning construction geographical information database, and utilizing a gravity model method to predict parallel distributed matrixes; (4) constructing a multi-element logit model, and determining the probability distribution for a single person selecting a travelling mode in specific travelling information; and (5) utilizing a capacity-limited multi-path distribution method to carry out traffic distribution. The modeling purpose, method to realization are overall planed, modeling parameter selection, basic data sources and calculation program design are coordinated, and the convenient application and operation of a traffic prediction model system are ensured.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a modeling method for traffic prediction. Background technique [0002] Traffic forecasting is to use computer technology to simulate the changing rules of urban spatial layout and traffic travel, and provide decision-making basis for city builders. The current traffic prediction modeling system has the following problems: [0003] (1) Urban planning and construction management and feedback is a long-term dynamic process, limited by the content and form of basic data, it is not easy to make full use of urban planning and construction data; [0004] (2) There are many modeling systems and methods and many parameters, but it is too difficult to obtain the parameters, or some parameters cannot be realized by the existing analysis software; once the basic data of the traffic models of many cities are entered into the analysis software, if Urban planning has changed, and it is very complicated to update the traffic model. However,...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0003] (1) Urban planning and construction management and feedback is a long-term dynamic process, limited by the content and form of basic data, it is not easy to make full use of urban planning and construction data;

[0004] (2) There are many modeling systems and methods and many parameters, but it is too difficult to obtain the parameters, or some parameters cannot be realized by the existing analysis software; once the basic data of the traffic models of many cities are entered into the analysis software, if Urban planning has changed, and it is very complicated to update the traffic model. However, urban planning often changes, and it is impossible to organize and complete the regulatory planning of each district in the city at one time;

[0005] (3) The general four-stage traffic forecasting modeling requires manual setting of input conditions, output results, and result judgments, which cannot guarantee the stability and visibility of modeling parameter selection and value setting, and the storage of matrix data in each stage and calls are prone to errors, and it is not easy to maintain the openness and sustainability of the model

Images