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Method and device for prediction of volcanic ash dispersion, and method and device for early warning

A prediction method and volcanic ash technology, applied in prediction, special data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as house damage, factory failure to produce normally, collapse, etc., and achieve the effect of reducing adverse consequences

Active Publication Date: 2018-06-08
TSINGHUA UNIV +1
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

For example, volcanic ash will have adverse effects on the respiratory system of humans and animals, and it will also prevent the normal production of factories that need to clean the environment. When the sedimentation mass is large, it may also cause damage or even collapse of houses.

Method used

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  • Method and device for prediction of volcanic ash dispersion, and method and device for early warning
  • Method and device for prediction of volcanic ash dispersion, and method and device for early warning
  • Method and device for prediction of volcanic ash dispersion, and method and device for early warning

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no. 1 approach

[0043] Below, refer to figure 1 , the volcanic ash spread prediction method according to the first embodiment of the present invention will be described.

[0044] First, in step S101, the wind speed and wind direction of each space layer stratified by height are obtained.

[0045] As mentioned above, in the prior art, the variation of wind direction and wind speed with height is not considered.

[0046] In contrast, in the present invention, the atmosphere is divided into many horizontal space layers. Assume that the horizontal wind speed varies as a function of height, but that each layer has a uniform and constant horizontal wind speed and direction.

[0047] That is, the highest point of the volcanic smoke column (the altitude of the highest point of the smoke column H m ) to the crater (volcanic altitude H 0 ) atmosphere is divided into θ layers, each layer height is ΔH k .

[0048]

[0049] For example, through the atmospheric stratification module, according to ...

Embodiment 1

[0069] The above-mentioned first embodiment can be specifically realized by the following embodiment 1. Here, refer to the attached figure 2 , and describe this embodiment 1 in detail.

[0070] First, in step S201, the wind speed and wind direction of each space layer stratified by height are acquired.

[0071] In step S202, a buffer area is established as a potential volcanic ash settlement area, and the buffer area is divided into grid points.

[0072] Secondly, in step S203, integration is performed according to height.

[0073] For example, for the particles located in the space layer with height i, the altitude integration step Δi can be used to go from the crater to the highest point of the volcanic plume (with an altitude of H 0 to H m ) for integral calculation.

[0074] In step S204, integration is performed according to the particle size.

[0075] For example, for a particle with a particle size j, the particle size step Δj can be used from the smallest partic...

Embodiment 2

[0110] Next, refer to the attached image 3 , Embodiment 2 will be described. Compared with embodiment 1, the difference between embodiment 2 and embodiment 1 is that step S205 of calculating the atmospheric diffusion function also includes steps S2051 to S2056.

[0111] First, in step S2051, the settlement time t is calculated i，j .

[0112] Secondly, in step S2052, it is judged that the settling time t of the particle is i，j Is it less than the critical value of settling time (FTT).

[0113] Here, a critical value of settling time (FTT) is introduced. When the settling time of particles is less than FTT, go to step S2053; when the settling time of particles is greater than or equal to FTT, go to step S2054.

[0114] The effect of atmospheric turbulence on coarse particles is a second-order effect, and some pyroclastic distribution models are based on the assumption that atmospheric turbulence can be ignored. However, atmospheric turbulence cannot be ignored if the parti...

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Abstract

Provided are a volcanic ash diffusion prediction method and apparatus and early warning method and apparatus. The method comprises: obtaining wind speed and direction of each of spatial layers stratified according to height (S101); on the basis of wind speed and direction of a preset spatial layer, calculating the atmospheric diffusion function of a volcanic ash particle having a preset particle diameter in the spatial layer (S102); on the basis of the atmospheric diffusion function, calculating the mass distribution of the volcanic ash particle having the preset particle diameter in the spatial layer (S103); on the basis of the mass distribution of the volcanic ash particle, obtaining a settling mass of the volcanic ash particle having the preset particle diameter in the spatial layer settling in each grid of a settling region on the ground (S104); conducting accumulation according to particle diameter, and obtaining the settling mass of volcanic ash particles having all different particle diameters in the spatial layer settling in each grid (S105); conducting accumulation according to height, and obtaining a total settling mass of the volcanic ash particles having all particle diameters in all spatial layers settling in each grid (S106); outputting the total settling mass in each grid (S107). The volcanic ash diffusion prediction method and apparatus can more realistically predict a volcanic diffusion process.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a volcanic ash spread prediction method and device, and a volcanic ash spread early warning method and device, in particular to a volcanic ash spread prediction method and device based on a Suzuki two-dimensional model. Background technique [0002] When a volcano erupts, rock or magma is crushed into fine particles, which form volcanic ash. When a volcano erupts, a large amount of volcanic ash is sprayed into the air. The volcanic ash that is sprayed into the air gradually spreads to a certain area with the movement of the atmosphere, and gradually sinks to the ground. These settled volcanic ash have a great impact on the production and life of local people. For example, volcanic ash will have adverse effects on the respiratory system of humans and animals, and it will also prevent the normal production of factories that need to clean the environment. When the sedimentation mass is large, it may also cause damage or even coll...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06F19/00
CPCG16Z99/00
Inventor 孙占辉马鹏飞陈涛苏国锋袁宏永黄全义李志鹏
Owner TSINGHUA UNIV
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