Energy demand prediction method based on structural decomposition

Abstract

The invention discloses an energy demand prediction method based on structural decomposition. The energy demand prediction method comprises steps that an energy demand main influence factor is extracted, and a base year and a sample interval are selected, and an energy consumption condition is decomposed and analyzed, and then a production energy demand prediction model is established, and is used for prediction, and at the same time, a household energy demand prediction is carried out, and at last, the production energy demand and the life energy demand are added up to predict a total energy demand. By taking an energy consumption basic rule as guidance, the various main influence factors of the energy consumption are extracted, and are used for the prediction, and therefore the energy demand prediction method having universality is provided, and a simple and practical energy demand prediction formula is established, and in addition, the prediction method is practical and convenient, the accuracy of the prediction is improved by times, and the prediction method is easy to realize and popularize.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for forecasting energy demand, in particular to a method for forecasting energy demand based on structural decomposition, and belongs to the technical field of analysis and forecasting. Background technique [0002] Energy demand forecasting is an important basic work for power grid companies. It can provide strong support for power grid companies' production planning, energy transmission, energy monitoring and management. With the development of the economy, the accuracy of energy demand forecasting Sexuality puts forward higher demands. [0003] Due to the many determinants of energy demand, the large amount of data, and the complex forecasting process, the existing commonly used energy demand forecasting methods, such as input-output method, scenario analysis method and elastic coefficient method, have low prediction accuracy; regression analysis and trend extrapolation The gray forecasting method, the gray forecas...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to solve the problem that the decision-making data of power purchase and operation in the current power grid is huge and complex, and there are many factors of electricity demand and power supply capacity, so it is impossible to quickly and effectively screen and obtain a large amount of useful data from massive data, and to process a large amount of data, and it is also impossible to quickly The shortcomings and deficiencies of forming rich-content data reports as a reference basis for decision-making provide a convenient and efficient way to quickly and effectively filter and obtain a large amount of useful data from massive data, and process a large amount of data, and at the same time can quickly form rich-content reports. An Energy Demand Forecasting Method Based on Structural Decomposition Using Data Reports as a Decision-making Reference

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