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Power Consumption Prediction Method and System Based on Prosperity Index

A technology of prosperity index and forecasting method, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, complex mathematical operations, etc., can solve problems such as insufficient forecasting ability, affecting safe and reliable power consumption of the power grid, and failure to meet power consumption forecasting, so as to improve the rationality Effect

Active Publication Date: 2018-03-30
ELECTRIC POWER RESEARCH INSTITUTE, CHINA SOUTHERN POWER GRID CO LTD
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Problems solved by technology

The accuracy of power demand will not only affect the safe and reliable power consumption of the grid, but also affect the production and operation decisions and economic benefits of grid operators
[0003] Due to the large number of industries and the different power consumption characteristics of industries, the traditional power consumption forecasting methods have gradually shown insufficient forecasting capabilities, unable to meet the needs of existing power consumption forecasts, and cannot provide important technologies for power supply control of the grid. support

Method used

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  • Power Consumption Prediction Method and System Based on Prosperity Index
  • Power Consumption Prediction Method and System Based on Prosperity Index
  • Power Consumption Prediction Method and System Based on Prosperity Index

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[0028] In order to make the object, technical solution and advantages of the present invention clearer, the present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described here are only used to explain the present invention, and do not limit the protection scope of the present invention.

[0029] In one embodiment, the power consumption prediction method based on the prosperity index, such as figure 1 shown, including the following steps:

[0030] Step S101: Obtain the power index of the power consumption industry to be tested within a preset time period, and the power index is determined according to the index associated with the industry development of the power consumption industry to be tested;

[0031] Here, the power index is obtained from the indicators related to the industry development of the power consumption industry to be measured. Taking the...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a business-index-based method and system for predicting electricity consumption. The method comprises: obtaining power indexes of a to-be-predicted electricity consumption industry within a time period; carrying out pretreatment on the power indexes; screening leading indicators out from the power indexes by using current industrial electricity consumption as a benchmark; according to goodness of fit, time difference correlation coefficients, and autocorrelation coefficients of all indexes in the leading indicators, determining weights of the indexes; on the basis of the weights of the indexes, determining a leading synthesis business index; according to the leading synthesis business index and the time difference correlation coefficient of the current industrial electricity consumption, determining a leading cardinal number; on the basis of the leading cardinal number, carrying out regression fitting on the leading synthesis business index of the to-be-predicted electricity consumption industry and the current industrial electricity consumption of the to-be-predicted electricity consumption industry; and on the basis of a regression fitting result, predicting industrial electricity consumption of the to-be-predicted electricity consumption industry. Therefore, the industrial electricity consumption can be predicted accurately and the decision-making basis can be provided for development of the future power industry.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of electricity consumption prediction, in particular to a method and system for electricity consumption prediction based on prosperity index. Background technique [0002] With the continuous deepening of urbanization and industrialization in our country, the demand for electricity consumption has changed dramatically, and the fluctuation of electricity consumption is closely related to the changes in the macro economy. Electricity consumption is a leading economic indicator that reflects the future operation of the real economy. Paying attention to social electricity consumption is of great significance for planning the development of the electric power industry. The accuracy of power demand will not only affect the safe and reliable power consumption of the grid, but also affect the production and operation decisions and economic benefits of grid operators. [0003] Due to the large number of industries a...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F17/10
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 冷媛陈政傅蔷宋艺航蒙文川张翔席云华王玲
Owner ELECTRIC POWER RESEARCH INSTITUTE, CHINA SOUTHERN POWER GRID CO LTD
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