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Method for analyzing fluctuation of photovoltaic output

A technology of output fluctuation and photovoltaic, applied in the field of analysis, can solve the problem of not analyzing the fluctuation characteristics of photovoltaic output, and achieve the effect of improving the acceptance capacity and the safety and stability of operation.

Inactive Publication Date: 2017-04-05
CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RES INST +2
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Problems solved by technology

[0003] The current research on the fluctuation of photovoltaic output is mainly to statistically analyze the fluctuation value of photovoltaic output in different time scales, but does not analyze the fluctuation characteristics of photovoltaic output in different weather types and different cloud states

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  • Method for analyzing fluctuation of photovoltaic output
  • Method for analyzing fluctuation of photovoltaic output
  • Method for analyzing fluctuation of photovoltaic output

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Embodiment Construction

[0047] Such as figure 1 As shown, a method for analyzing the fluctuation of photovoltaic output includes:

[0048] (1) Collect the historical photovoltaic power output data of the photovoltaic power station; the collection in step (1) includes: converting the historical photovoltaic power output P(i, t), and expressing the headroom theoretical power and relative power with the following formula (1):

[0049] P(i,t)=P DCI (i,t)·P N (i,t) (1)

[0050] In formula (1), P DCI (i,t) and P N (i, t) are the theoretical output and relative output of the headroom model based on the headroom model at time t on the i-th day, respectively.

[0051] The relative output P N (i, t) is decomposed into a set of power average value and fluctuation value, expressed by the following formula (2):

[0052] P N (i,t)=P M (i)+P F (i,t) (2)

[0053] In formula (2), P F (i,t) is the fluctuation value caused by different cloud state and weather state at time t of the i-th day, P M (i) is the...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a method for analyzing the fluctuation of photovoltaic output, which comprises: collecting the historical photovoltaic output data of a photovoltaic power station; inputting a single-day weather type; obtaining a likelihood function of the fluctuation value probability distribution under the weather type; estimating a three-component mixed Gaussian probability distribution parameter based on an EM maximum likelihood Estimation method and generating a fitting probability distribution curve; and confirming the validity of the distribution fitting. Through the fitting method, the method analyzes the PV output fluctuation characteristics of different weather types and different cloud states, obtains the uncertain data in different weathers, and helps to guide the scheduling operation of a power system, thereby enhancing the photovoltaic power generation acceptance capacity and operational safety and stability of the power system.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to an analysis method, in particular to a method for analyzing the fluctuation of photovoltaic output. Background technique [0002] Photovoltaic power generation is the renewable energy technology with the greatest potential and application value after wind power. With the support of a series of supporting policies in our country, photovoltaic power generation has developed rapidly. By 2020, my country's photovoltaic power generation installed capacity will reach 50GW, with a planned annual growth of more than 15%. However, the random and fluctuating characteristics of photovoltaic power generation will affect the peak regulation and frequency regulation of the power grid. Therefore, studying the fluctuation characteristics of photovoltaic output will provide experience and basis for power system peak regulation and frequency regulation, operation control methods, etc. [0003] The current research on the fluctuation of photovo...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): H02J3/00H02J3/38
CPCY02E10/56
Inventor 刘纯李驰黄越辉王跃峰董存刘德伟张楠礼晓飞高云峰马烁许晓艳李鹏潘霄锋李丽王江元
Owner CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RES INST
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