Estimation method of car travel time on road section with mixed traffic stations based on reliability model

Abstract

The invention relates to a method for estimating transit time of a car on a mixed-traffic site road section based on a reliability model. The method comprises the steps of: the step 1: taking each carpassing a bus stop road section as an observation sample, taking the moment when a car arrives at a bus stop starting point as a keyword, and matching buses, cars and non-motor vehicles within a period of time before the moment into the observation sample to construct car road section transit time sample data; the step 2: building a bus road section transit time reliability model at the bus stopin a mixed-traffic environment, estimating parameters of the reliability model, and finally obtaining a final mathematical expression of the car road section transit time reliability model; and the step 3: on the basis of the step 2, obtaining the real-time bus arrival flow, the car arrival flow and the non-motor vehicle arrival flow as the input variables of the car road section transit time reliability model to estimate or predict the currently arrived car road section transit time.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a reliability model-based method for estimating the travel time of cars in road sections with mixed traffic stations. Background technique [0002] In my country's urban branch roads and trunk roads, bus stops are often set on non-motorized lanes. When buses enter and leave the station, they will conflict with cars and non-motorized vehicles. When the bus stops at the station, non-motorized vehicles will detour to the motorized lane. Driving, resulting in mutual interference of cars, buses and non-motorized vehicles, which is likely to cause delays in vehicle transit time and decline in traffic capacity of road sections, thereby affecting the smooth flow of the entire transportation network. The phenomenon of machine-non-mixed traffic at bus stations on urban branch roads and arterial roads is very typical in my country. Under this mixed traffic environment, the interaction and interference between the three types of vehicles at...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0003] Transportation scholars at home and abroad have done a lot of research on issues such as the design and location of bus stops, and have achieved many valuable results. There are also some patented technologies related to the road capacity and vehicle transit time at bus stops, but most of the relevant research It is aimed at the analysis of bus stops on roads with separated roads, and the research is on a single motor vehicle flow (including only two types of motor vehicles, buses and cars), and it is rare to analyze bus stops with mixed traffic.

In addition, most of the existing research on mixed traffic flow focuses on the analysis of mixed traffic of vehicles and non-machines on basic road sections and intersections. Although some patented technologies involve the passage time of road sections or intersections, there are few studies on the analysis of cars, buses at bus stops, etc. Mixed traffic behavior between vehicles and non-motorized vehicles

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