A Reliability Distribution Analysis Method for Capacity of Urban Expressway Sections Based on Weibull Distribution

Abstract

The present invention provides a method for analyzing the reliability distribution of traffic capacity of urban expressway sections based on Weibull distribution, which can explain the random traffic capacity of expressway sections under multiple bottlenecks, including the following steps, setting a plurality of detection points for the section to be analyzed; The environmental information of each detection point is obtained; the shape parameters and scale parameters of each detection point are obtained according to the environmental information; the traffic flow mutation probability of each detection point is obtained according to the shape parameters and scale parameters of each detection point. The present invention is based on the assumption that the mutation probabilities of each bottleneck road section are independent of each other. This assumption has been verified by experimental results. In a short period of time, the present invention can provide the theoretical average traffic capacity and mutation probability of road sections with different lengths as required. The result is more consistent with the actual situation, and the present invention provides an excellent solution for analyzing the sudden change risk of traffic flow in expressway sections or road networks, especially for the analysis of the sudden change probability of each bottleneck between expressway sections.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of transportation, in particular to a method for analyzing the reliability distribution of traffic capacity of urban expressway sections based on Weibull distribution Background technique [0002] With the in-depth understanding of the randomness of traffic capacity, its corresponding concept is becoming an important course application in road reliability analysis and practical application. Here, traffic capacity is understood as a variable before sudden changes in road traffic volume. Most technicians prove the variability of traffic before the mutation by observing traffic mutations of different flows. Brilon et al. proposed the concept of stochastic capacity analysis in theory. At the same time, based on the ideas of Minderhoud and van Toorenburg, they proposed a statistical method based on statistical methods to screen data and then provide consistent random capacity estimates. Dong and Mahmassani used this conc...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0003] In the existing technology, for a long road section without a clearly defined "bottleneck", the random traffic capacity distribution of the road section is mostly based on the minimum or minimum value of the monitoring point position, and the results often lack accuracy

In addition, due to differences in road conditions, most studies often have a certain degree of arbitrariness in the calibration of random distribution parameters.

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