Method for predicting short-term load curve of 110kV main transformer of power grid

Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of power grid dispatching, in particular to a method for predicting short-term load curve of a 110kV main transformer of a power grid. The method comprisesthe following steps of: obtaining predicted current curves of all 10kV feeder lines of a power grid in the future 48 hours; traversing each 110kV main transformer of the power grid; acquiring equipment information, establishing a constraint condition according to a tide direction and a voltage level, and topologically obtaining all 10kV feeder lines mounted under a 110kV main transformer; superposing the prediction current curves of all 10kV feeders mounted under the 110kV main transformer to obtain prediction curve data of the 110kV main transformer; obtaining a predicted load curve of all 110kV main transformers of the power grid in the future 48 hours; and correcting the predicted load curves of all 110kV main transformers in the future 48 hours to form a final 48-hour predicted load curve. Real-time topology analysis can be carried out, the main transformer load composition is rapidly and automatically analyzed through a power failure maintenance single correction mechanism, thenhistorical data of each load composition element is fitted, a main transformer short-term load curve is generated, the timeliness is high, and the accuracy is high.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of power grid dispatching, and more specifically, to a method for predicting short-term load curves of 110kV main transformers in power grids. Background technique [0002] The load forecasting of the main transformer of the power grid is of great significance for improving the management level of the power demand side and serving the power spot market transactions. Traditional load forecasting is mostly carried out for the city's electricity load, and its basic principles and methods are not applicable to the forecasting of a single main transformer. It is strongly related to external factors such as temperature. The main transformer load curve mainly depends on its real-time or future load. Due to changes in operation mode, equipment maintenance, distribution network ring network transfer and other reasons, the load composition is often in dynamic changes, and the load composition cannot be accur...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Due to changes in operation mode, equipment maintenance, distribution network ring network transfer, etc., the load composition is often in a dynamic change, and the load composition cannot be obtained accurately in real time, making it impossible to accurately predict the load curve.

At present, manual methods are generally used to analyze the changes in load composition, and then carry out load forecasting based on the historical data of each load component element. Manual work is time-consuming and labor-intensive, and it is difficult to meet the real-time, accurate and efficient requirements of short-term and ultra-short-term load forecasting.

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