Broken ship capsizing probability calculation method based on POT (peak over threshold)
A probabilistic calculation and ship technology, applied to ship components, ship construction, ships, etc., can solve the problems of increasing a lot of calculation and solution time, slow convergence speed, and long time consumption, and achieve the effect of auxiliary decision-making and emergency response
Active Publication Date: 2019-11-26
LUDONG UNIVERSITY
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Although the existing calculation methods for the capsizing probability of damaged ships are accurate, the convergence speed is slow and the time-consuming is long. To achieve high-precision calculation results, a lot of calculation and solution time need to be increased, which is very unsuitable for the safety of ships in emergency situations. rapid assessment of
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[0031] The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some of the embodiments of the present invention, but not all of them. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by persons of ordinary skill in the art without making creative efforts belong to the protection scope of the present invention.
[0032] as attached figure 2 As shown, the POT-based calculation method for the capsizing probability of a damaged ship includes the following steps:
[0033] 1. Time-domain calculation of the flooding process of the damaged ship:
[0034] The solution method is determined according to the different damage types of the ship. The water in the first and second types of tanks has no interaction with the outboard water, and the method of adding weight is used to solve the restoring moment at different heel angles; the second type of ta...
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The invention relates to a broken ship capsizing probability calculation method based on POT (peak over threshold), and belongs to the technical field of broken ship capsizing probability calculationmethods based on the POT. The broken ship capsizing probability calculation method based on the POT includes following steps: 1, performing time domain calculation on the water entering process of a broken ship; and 2, performing capsizing probability evaluation based on the POT method for the broken ship in beam wind and beam sea. The core of the adopted POT method includes: selecting a small amount of data for analysis processing according to a threshold value, performing modeling for all observed values, exceeding the threshold value, in a sample, performing fitting on tail features of thedata, and achieving quick evaluation for ship safety. The broken ship capsizing probability calculation method based on the POT can assist a decision maker in performing high-speed decision and emergency response at the critical moment that the ship is broken and water enters the ship.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for calculating the overturning probability of a damaged ship based on POT, and belongs to the technical field of calculating methods for the overturning probability of a damaged ship. Background technique [0002] At present, the Monte Carlo method is used to numerically simulate the single-degree-of-freedom roll motion equation to solve the capsizing probability of damaged ships, and the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method is used to solve the solution. The short-term probability distribution table of each wave in the North Atlantic is directly calculated, and then through Monte Carlo Probabilistic methods and weights of long-term distributions of waves for direct evaluation of probabilities. Set the calculation time of each test as 1 hour (3600s), the probability of each capsizing of the ship is p (0<p<1), obey the Bernoulli distribution (1,p), repeat the calculation n times, and capsize the number of times is n ...
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IPC IPC(8): B63B9/08
Inventor 胡丽芬李武斌张克正毕俊颖吕文斌
Owner LUDONG UNIVERSITY