Photovoltaic output prediction method and system

Abstract

The invention relates to a photovoltaic output prediction method and system. The method includes obtaining historical output data of a target photovoltaic power station and a photovoltaic power station adjacent to the target photovoltaic power station; based on the historical output data, calculating correlation coefficients of a target photovoltaic power station and an adjacent photovoltaic powerstation; obtaining a fitting probability set of a photovoltaic power station sample based on the correlation coefficient; and predicting output data of a target photovoltaic power station according to the fitting probability set of the photovoltaic power station samples. The predicted photovoltaic output considers indexes such as time sequence and volatility of the photovoltaic output, reflects the spatial correlation of the output of each photovoltaic power station, and improves the prediction precision of the photovoltaic output.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of power systems, in particular to a photovoltaic output prediction method and system. Background technique [0002] At present, the depletion of energy resources and the increasingly serious environmental pollution have become the focus of close attention of the government and the public. Conserving energy, protecting the environment, and promoting the benign interaction and coordination between the economy and society are urgent needs to promote sustainable social development. In this situation, photovoltaic and other new energy power generation is developing rapidly. Currently, the installed capacity of new energy ranks first in the world. However, affected by factors such as power supply structure, resource distribution and power grid structure, the problem of new energy consumption has become more prominent year by year. [0003] In the analysis of new energy consumption capacity, the correct prediction of phot...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] In order to solve the problem of the relevant photovoltaic output required for calculation in the above-mentioned prior art, the present invention provides a method and system for predicting photovoltaic output. The predicted photovoltaic output not only takes into account the timing and volatility of photovoltaic output and other indicators , which also reflects the spatial correlation of the output of each photovoltaic power station, and improves the prediction accuracy of photovoltaic output

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