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Energy consumption prediction method and device

A technology for energy consumption and forecasting methods, applied in forecasting, resources, instruments, etc., to solve problems such as inaccurate energy consumption forecasting

Pending Publication Date: 2020-06-19
YANGZHONG INTELLIGENT ELECTRICAL INST NORTH CHINA ELECTRIC POWER UNIV
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] The embodiment of the present invention provides an energy consumption prediction method and device to solve the problem of inaccurate energy consumption prediction in the prior art

Method used

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  • Energy consumption prediction method and device

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Experimental program
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Embodiment 1

[0038] figure 1 A schematic diagram of the energy consumption prediction process provided by the embodiment of the present invention, the process includes the following steps:

[0039] S101: Input the acquired first data within the first time length into the pre-trained autoregressive integral moving average ARIMA model, and input the acquired second data within the first time length into the pre-trained support vector machine SVM Model.

[0040] S102: Determine a first predicted energy consumption value based on the ARIMA model, and determine a second predicted energy consumption value based on the SVM model.

[0041] S103: Determine a target energy consumption prediction value at a first prediction time according to the first energy consumption prediction value and the second energy consumption prediction value.

[0042] The energy consumption prediction method provided by the embodiment of the present invention is applied to an electronic device, and the electronic device...

Embodiment 2

[0049] In order to make the determined target energy consumption prediction value more accurate, on the basis of the above-mentioned embodiments, in the embodiment of the present invention, according to the first energy consumption prediction value and the second energy consumption prediction value, determine the first prediction Time-based target energy consumption forecasts include:

[0050] Determining the latest acquired true value of energy consumption;

[0051] determining a first prediction error according to the first predicted value of energy consumption and the actual value of energy consumption; determining a second prediction error according to the second predicted value of energy consumption and the actual value of energy consumption;

[0052] determining a first weight corresponding to the first energy consumption prediction value and a second weight corresponding to the second energy consumption prediction value according to the first prediction error and the se...

Embodiment 3

[0062] On the basis of the above-mentioned embodiments, in the embodiment of the present invention, the training process of the ARIMA model includes:

[0063] For the third data in each second time length in the first training set, input the third data in the second time length and the actual value of energy consumption at the second prediction time corresponding to the second time length into the ARIMA model, The ARIMA model is trained.

[0064] In the embodiment of the present invention, the training set used for training the ARIMA model is used as the first training set, and the data in the first training set is used as the third data. The first data and the third data include energy consumption values. The electronic device divides the third data in the first training set into the third data in each second time length, and the second time length is, for example, three days, then the third data in the first training set can be divided into January 1, 2018 The third data f...

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Abstract

The invention discloses an energy consumption prediction method and device, and the method comprises the steps: inputting obtained first data into a pre-trained ARIMA model, and inputting obtained second data into a pre-trained SVM model; determining a first energy consumption prediction value based on an ARIMA model, and determining a second energy consumption prediction value based on an SVM model; and determining a target energy consumption prediction value of the first prediction time according to the first energy consumption prediction value and the second energy consumption prediction value. During energy consumption prediction, the first energy consumption prediction value is determined based on the ARIMA model, and the second energy consumption prediction value is determined basedon the SVM model; and a target energy consumption prediction value is determined in combination with the first energy consumption prediction value determined by the ARIMA model and the second energy consumption prediction value determined by the SVM model. By utilizing the advantages of the ARIMA model and the SVM model, the determined target energy consumption prediction value is more accurate.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of energy consumption prediction, in particular to an energy consumption prediction method and device. Background technique [0002] With the rapid advancement of urbanization in my country, the total construction volume will continue to grow, and the increase in the proportion of building energy consumption and energy consumption is an inevitable trend of development. The energy consumption per square meter of my country's buildings is about three times that of developed countries with similar climates. With the sustained and rapid economic growth, my country's building energy consumption is also increasing. my country has become one of the three major energy-consuming countries. The problem is becoming increasingly apparent. How to accurately predict building energy consumption has become an urgent problem to be solved in our country. [0003] The current building energy consumption prediction technology ...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q10/06G06Q50/08G06K9/62
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q10/06315G06Q50/08G06F18/2411
Inventor 刘鹏刘松马亚泽俞石洪横山隆一
Owner YANGZHONG INTELLIGENT ELECTRICAL INST NORTH CHINA ELECTRIC POWER UNIV