Infectious disease development trend prediction method and system

Abstract

The invention provides an infectious disease development trend prediction method and system. The method comprises the steps: obtaining the complete disease cumulative infection number data of a plurality of existing infectious diseases, and respectively constructing development trend equations of each existing infectious disease through a fitting method; obtaining a mathematical relationship equation between the current new infectious disease infection number and the cumulative infectious disease infection number of the same type through the fitting method according to the development trend equations of the existing infectious diseases of the same type and the existing infectious disease infection number data of the new infectious disease; according to the development trend equations of the existing infectious diseases of the same type and the existing infection people number data of the new infectious diseases, constructing an infection period mathematical relationship formula of thenew infectious diseases and the existing infectious diseases of the same type; and constructing a development trend prediction model of the new infectious disease, and predicting the cumulative infection number and change of the new infectious disease at different time nodes through cyclic calculation. The method provided by the invention is scientific and accurate in prediction, and can provide scientific guidance for auxiliary infectious disease control.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of disease prediction, in particular to a method and system for predicting the development trend of infectious diseases. Background technique [0002] Infectious diseases are a class of diseases caused by various pathogens that can be transmitted from human to human, animal to animal or human to animal. Infectious diseases are characterized by their prevalence, periodicity, and regularity. The law and trend of the development and change of infectious diseases can be better grasped through the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods. Using scientific and practical methods to predict the cumulative number of people infected with a similar infectious disease, the development cycle of infectious diseases and other development trends will help to understand the laws of infectious diseases and lay a foundation for scientific prevention and control of infectious diseases. In the existing technology, the predicti...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

In the existing technology, the prediction of new infectious diseases generally adopts the sampling of existing data, and predicts the development trend of a certain new infectious disease through statistical methods. These data are only for reference and cannot reflect scientifically. The spread rules and characteristics of new infectious diseases have not been fully considered, and the correlation between the development trends of multiple infectious diseases has not been fully considered. There are certain limitations in the prediction methods. At the same time, the existing prediction methods rely more on the experience of experts rather than relying on scientific method

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