Large-scale combat aviation material demand prediction and reserve decision-making method

A technology of demand forecasting and decision-making methods, applied in forecasting, instrumentation, data processing applications, etc., can solve problems such as poor accuracy of aviation material demand measurement and calculation

Active Publication Date: 2021-07-06
中国人民解放军海军航空大学青岛校区
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

[0016] The present invention aims at the above-mentioned problems such as the poor accuracy of aviation material demand measurement and calculation existing in the prior art, and provides a large-scale combat

Method used

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  • Large-scale combat aviation material demand prediction and reserve decision-making method
  • Large-scale combat aviation material demand prediction and reserve decision-making method
  • Large-scale combat aviation material demand prediction and reserve decision-making method

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Embodiment 1

[0077] Embodiment 1: The embodiment of the present invention provides a method for constructing a large-scale combat aviation material demand forecast and reserve decision model, which contains the following steps:

[0078] S1. According to the acquired number of aircraft battle injuries N s and the number of aircraft battle damage N k Build a prediction model for the number of available aircraft in combat, and obtain the number of aircraft available during combat N′ Y , the prediction model for the number of combat available aircraft is expressed as:

[0079]

[0080] In the formula, N S =N Y ×p 1 ×p 2 ×α,N K =N Y ×p 1 ×p 2 ×φ,N Y is the actual number of combat aircraft at the beginning of the entire campaign, p 1 is the battle sortie rate, p 2 is the daily average dispatch intensity, α is the aircraft damage rate, φ is the aircraft damage rate, σ is the proportion of war-damaged aircraft repaired on the spot, 1-σ is the proportion of war-damaged aircraft repai...

Embodiment 2

[0124] Embodiment 2: The embodiment of the present invention provides a method for constructing a large-scale combat aviation material demand forecast and reserve decision model, and its steps S1 and S3 are the same as those in Embodiment 1. But step S2 is different from Embodiment 1. In this embodiment, step S2 is: constructing a combat aviation material demand forecasting model, and predicting the combat aviation material demand n″ according to the combat aviation material demand forecasting model. The specific steps of constructing the combat aviation material demand forecasting model are:

[0125] S21. According to the number of aircraft available during the operation N′ Y Construct a demand forecast model for long-term aviation materials, and the demand forecast model for long-term aviation materials is expressed as:

[0126]

[0127] In the formula, n" 0 is the quantity of long-lived aviation materials that needs to be raised before the war, b is the number of singl...

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PUM

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Abstract

The invention relates to a large-scale combat aviation material demand prediction and reserve decision-making method, and the method comprises the following steps: S1, constructing a combat available aircraft number prediction model according to the obtained aircraft war injury number Ns and aircraft war damage number Nk, and obtaining the available aircraft number N'Y during a combat period; S2, constructing a combat aviation material demand prediction model, and predicting a combat aviation material demand n'' according to the combat aviation material demand prediction model; and S3, constructing a combat aviation material reserve decision-making model according to the combat aviation material demand n'', and deciding the reserve limit of the combat aviation material according to the combat aviation material reserve decision-making model. According to the method, the accuracy of aviation material demand quantity measurement can be ensured, and the aviation material supply guarantee capability is enhanced.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of aviation maintenance support, and relates to a large-scale combat aviation material demand forecasting and reserve decision-making method. Background technique [0002] The consumption law of large-scale combat aviation materials is more complicated than usual, and the uncertainty of its consumption is more obvious. When forecasting the demand for aviation materials in wartime, in addition to considering the consumption caused by the execution of tasks, it is also necessary to consider the impact of various combat-related factors on the consumption of aviation materials. ; In addition, it is necessary to enhance the supply guarantee capability of aviation materials through management means to make up for the lack of quantitative forecasting. [0003] The literature "Research on the Demand Model of Aircraft War Damage Spare Parts" believes that the role of the air force in modern warfare is becoming more ...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q10/06G06Q50/26
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q10/067G06Q50/26
Inventor 郭峰杨霄杨彦明高富东王恒新陈强赵文娟
Owner 中国人民解放军海军航空大学青岛校区
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