Carbon emission medium and long term prediction method based on social economic data

A technology of socio-economic and forecasting methods, applied in forecasting, data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as less research on carbon emissions and lack of energy structure forecasting.

Pending Publication Date: 2022-03-08
STATE GRID ZHEJIANG ELECTRIC POWER +1
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Problems solved by technology

However, there are relatively few studies on the prediction methods ...

Method used

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  • Carbon emission medium and long term prediction method based on social economic data
  • Carbon emission medium and long term prediction method based on social economic data
  • Carbon emission medium and long term prediction method based on social economic data

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Embodiment

[0045] This embodiment relates to a medium and long-term forecasting method for carbon emissions based on socioeconomic data, see figure 1 shown, including the following steps:

[0046] (1) Primary energy demand forecast: By simulating the correlation between primary energy consumption in previous years and actual GDP, industrial structure, and industrial energy intensity, and based on policy planning and historical development trends, first predict future actual GDP, industrial structure, and industrial energy intensity. , and then predict the annual primary energy consumption in the future according to the simulated correlation;

[0047] (2) Energy structure forecast: According to the consumption structure of coal, oil, natural gas, and water, wind, light, and nuclear energy in previous years, the Markov forecast method is used, combined with relevant policies, to determine the annual energy structure of key nodes in the future, so as to calculate Calculate the energy str...

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Abstract

The invention provides a carbon emission medium and long term prediction method based on social economic data. Comprising the following steps: (1) predicting a primary energy demand: firstly predicting a numerical value of future energy intensity by simulating a correlation between primary energy consumption in the previous year and actual GDP, industrial structure and industrial energy intensity, and then predicting the primary energy consumption in the future year according to the simulated correlation; (2) energy structure prediction: according to each energy consumption structure in the previous year, calculating the energy structure in each year in the future by using a Markov prediction method; the energy consumption in the future is obtained; (3) calculating the carbon dioxide emission by using the carbon dioxide formula estimation coefficient; and (4) carbon emission prediction: predicting the carbon emission in the future year in combination with the carbon dioxide emission coefficient and the energy consumption. According to the method, the carbon emission in the future year is obtained by predicting the primary energy consumption and the energy structure in the future year and combining the carbon emission estimation coefficient.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of carbon emission prediction, in particular to a medium and long-term prediction method for carbon emission based on social and economic data. Background technique [0002] Under the development framework of the green economy, the continuous warming of the climate has gradually become a hot issue that has attracted the attention of all countries. Tracing the root causes of climate warming, there are effects of climate change cycles, but to a greater extent rooted in carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) represents a large amount of greenhouse gas emissions. in CO 2 Among the emission sources, human production and life, especially the deepening of industrialization, occupy an important position. [0003] Since the prediction of carbon emissions needs to be combined with the existing emissions, the reasonable choice of the prediction method of carbon emissions has become a key issue. However, there are relatively few st...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q10/06G06Q50/06G06Q50/26
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q10/06393G06Q50/06G06Q50/26Y02P90/84
Inventor 李江龙刘泓汛韩蓉陈飞周林陈佳玺杨恺孟观飞杨秀汪
Owner STATE GRID ZHEJIANG ELECTRIC POWER
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