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Short-term load forecast method based on meteorological factor sensitivity

A technology for short-term load forecasting and meteorological factors, applied in forecasting, climate change adaptation, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as the influence of short-term load forecasting accuracy of electricity and the inability to obtain meteorological data, so as to ensure the safe operation of power grids and improve forecasting accuracy. Effect

Active Publication Date: 2013-02-13
POWER DISPATCHING CONTROL CENT OF GUANGDONG POWER GRID CO LTD
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Problems solved by technology

However, due to the limitation of objective conditions, there are large uncertainties in the current weather forecast information, and it is still impossible to obtain the ideal sufficient and accurate weather data
Therefore, if the weather forecast data is fully trusted, it will have a serious impact on the accuracy of short-term power load forecasting

Method used

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  • Short-term load forecast method based on meteorological factor sensitivity
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  • Short-term load forecast method based on meteorological factor sensitivity

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Embodiment Construction

[0012] In order to further illustrate the technical means adopted by the present invention and the achieved effects, the technical solutions of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and preferred embodiments.

[0013] see figure 1 , is a schematic flowchart of the short-term load forecasting method based on the sensitivity of meteorological factors in the present invention. The present invention is based on the short-term load forecasting method of meteorological factor sensitivity, comprises the following steps:

[0014] S101 obtains the forecasted temperature of the day to be predicted and the actual temperature of several historical days;

[0015] First, obtain the forecasted temperature of the day to be predicted and the actual temperature of several historical days.

[0016] S102 Correct the forecast temperature of the day to be predicted and the actual temperature of the several historical day...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a short-term load forecast method based on meteorological factor sensitivity. The short-term load forecast method comprises the following steps: obtaining a forecast air temperature of a date to be forecast and actual air temperatures of a plurality of historical dates; modifying the forecast air temperature of the date to be forecast and the actual air temperatures of the plurality of historical dates; obtaining the power loads of the plurality of historical dates; fitting the modified actual air temperatures of the plurality of historical dates with the power loads so as to obtain a relation model of the actual air temperatures and the power loads; and forecasting the power load of the date to be forecast. According to the short-term load forecast method, the influence of the error of the weather forecast and the air temperature accumulation effect is taken into account in the short-term load forecast, the forecast air temperature of the date to be forecast and the actual air temperatures of the historical dates are firstly modified, and subsequently the forecast is carried out; and the forecast precision of the short-term power load is improved, the reference for scheduling and controlling a power grid is provided, and the safe operation of the power grid is guaranteed.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of electric power forecasting, in particular to a short-term load forecasting method based on the sensitivity of meteorological factors. Background technique [0002] With the development of society and economy, the utilization rate of high-power and high-energy-consuming electrical appliances continues to increase, the cooling and heating load accounts for an increasing proportion of the total electricity load, and the impact of meteorological factors on the electricity load is becoming more and more significant. In summer, every 1°C change in temperature has a huge impact on electrical loads. The cumulative effect of temperature is becoming more and more obvious in areas with a large proportion of air conditioning. It has become an unavoidable problem to reflect the cumulative effect of temperature in the forecast of power load (also known as daily maximum load). For short-term power load forecasting, it ...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCY04S10/54Y02A30/00Y04S10/50
Inventor 李嘉龙卢恩刘思捷
Owner POWER DISPATCHING CONTROL CENT OF GUANGDONG POWER GRID CO LTD
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