Rainfall frequency estimation method based on hydrometeorology consistency geographical analysis

Abstract

The invention discloses a rainfall frequency estimation method based on a hydrometeorology consistency geographical analysis and belongs to the technical field of hydrometeorology. The rainfall frequency estimation method based on the hydrometeorology consistency geographical analysis comprises the following steps: dividing a study area into a plurality of consistent areas according to an analysis of climate and hydrological similarities, and each rainfall site which belongs to the same consistent areas is similar in climate statistical property and identical in statistical characteristic value of hydrological data; analyzing the optimal dimensionless rainfall probability distribution curve of the consistent area by utilizing historical data of all rainfall sites of the consistent areas, and further ascertaining a rainfall frequency estimation value of each rainfall site. The rainfall frequency estimation method based on the hydrometeorology consistency geographical analysis can effectively improve precision and accuracy of rainfall frequency calculation.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a rainfall frequency estimation method, which belongs to the technical field of hydrometeorology. Background technique [0002] my country is one of the countries with the most frequent flood disasters. Flood control is always a very important issue related to the safety of people's lives and property and social stability. Whether it is engineering flood control design, or regional and urban flood control design, a scientific and reliable flood control design standard is needed. An important basis for the estimation of flood control design standards in my country is the calculation result of flood frequency, and its theoretical basis is the calculation of hydrological frequency. There are two major problems to be solved in the frequency calculation: precision and accuracy, that is, the precision of the parameter estimation method and the accuracy of the frequency estimate. The two major difficulties faced by hydrological freq...

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Problems solved by technology

However, in terms of hydrology for a rainstorm, the smaller the distance, the better the correlation of extreme rainstorms between stations, and the samples of hydrological frequency analysis must first meet the condition of independent and identical distribution. Therefore, mathematical statistics are consistent with actual Hydrological events produce conflicting

At the same time, the factor variables for cluster analysis generally select natural attributes such as longitude, latitude, elevation, and annual average rainfall of the site. However, studies by many scholars at home and abroad have shown that it is difficult to have a good relationship between these attributes and extreme rainstorms. Therefore, the use of these four factor variables to divide the consistent area is insufficient in the physical sense. Although the accuracy of the frequency estimate calculated by the partition is improved compared with the single-station analysis, the result is not very satisfactory, especially It is difficult to reasonably coordinate the frequency estimates among the various subregions

The frequency analysis and calculation in our country has been stuck at the level of "one point (single point, single time period), one line (P-III type curve) plus binoculars (visual estimation fit line)", which is far from satisfying the rapidly developing national economy in China. and production needs

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