Method for determining forecast precision of multiple levels of loads

A technology of load forecasting and measurement methods, applied in forecasting, instruments, data processing applications, etc., can solve problems such as unfavorable power grid load forecast accuracy, increase the risk of power grid operation, and reduce the economic efficiency of power grid dispatching, so as to achieve clear physical meaning and development Low difficulty, strong practical effect

Active Publication Date: 2013-12-18
TSINGHUA UNIV
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Problems solved by technology

There are objective differences in the load regularity of different areas that cannot be changed in a short period of time. For example, the load regularity of areas containing impact loads such as steel mills is usually poorer than that of general areas, and it is difficult to obtain better prediction accuracy
At present, the power grid

Method used

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  • Method for determining forecast precision of multiple levels of loads
  • Method for determining forecast precision of multiple levels of loads
  • Method for determining forecast precision of multiple levels of loads

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[0021] The present invention will be further described in detail below with reference to the drawings and embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein can be used to explain the present invention, but do not limit the present invention.

[0022] The method for measuring the accuracy of multi-level load forecasting proposed by the present invention has an overall implementation process such as figure 1 As shown, including the following steps:

[0023] 1) For the load of each level and area, calculate the relative error PE index of each time period of the load curve, and use the exponential transformation of the PE index to obtain the EPE index;

[0024] The calculation method of the relative error PE (Percentage Error) in each period is as shown in formula (1):

[0025] PE = | y ^ t - y t y t + ϵ | - - - ( 1 )

[0026] Perform exponent transformation of the PE indicators of each time perio...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a method for determining the forecast precision of multiple levels of loads, and belongs to the technical field of load forecast in the electric system. The method for determining the forecast precision of multiple levels of loads includes the steps of calculating a (Percentage Error) PE index of a load curve of the loads of each level and in each area in each time period, and carrying out exponential transformation on each PE index to obtain an (Exponent of Percentage Error) EPE index in each time period; obtaining geometrical means from the EPE indexes to obtain a (Geometric Mean Exponent of Percentage Error) GMEPE; calculating the precision datum line of the loads of each level and in each area by adopting a stability forecasting method; diving the GMEPE by the precision datum line to obtain reference precision; determining the forecast results of the loads of each level and in each area based on the reference precision. The method for determining the forecast precision of multiple levels of loads adopts the GMEPE to measure the forecast precision, and determines the forecast precision based on the reference precision, thereby improving the forecast precision of the overall loads of a power grid and lowering the operational risks of the power grid.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of power system load forecasting, and in particular relates to a precision analysis and evaluation method for multi-level load forecasting. Background technique [0002] Power systems are among the largest and most complex systems in the world. Judging from the actual situation of our country, the development of my country's electric power industry has naturally formed a national, regional and provincial three-level power grid today. There is an obvious hierarchical relationship between the loads of various levels of power grids, and the load characteristics of different areas of the same level of power grids are also different. [0003] From a vertical perspective, the load forecasting of different levels of power grids currently has the problem of "different accuracy measurement methods". At the level of system load, the average absolute relative error index——MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error)—with relat...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 童星康重庆陈新宇夏清
Owner TSINGHUA UNIV
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