Method for calculating extreme high water levels in different reappearance periods under insufficient long-term tide level data condition

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for calculating the extreme high water levels in different reappearance periods under the insufficient long-term tide level data condition. The method for calculating the extreme high water levels in different reappearance periods under the insufficient long-term tide level data condition comprises the steps that 1, topographic data, meteorological data and actually-measured water level data are obtained; 2, an ADCIRC model is established, and the reliability of the model is verified; 3, the typhoon data in a long time of a study area are obtained, joint distribution of all factors is considered by means of a Monte Carlo model, the historical occurrence scope of each parameter is defined, and one parameter is regenerated in each defined scope, so that a new storm tide driving element set is generated; 4, the extreme water levels are generated by simulating all the storm tide driving element sets by means of the ADCIRC model, and the corresponding reappearance period is calculated. According to the method for calculating the extreme high water levels in different reappearance periods, the set of comprehensive storm tide elements, combined with the Monte Carlo model, for simulating the required historical reappearance periods is formed; by the adoption of the method for calculating the extreme water levels based on the dynamic ADCIRC model, the extreme high water levels in different reappearance periods can be accurately determined under the insufficient long-term tide level data condition.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to a digital calculation or data processing method specially suitable for specific applications, in particular to a method for calculating extreme high water levels with a return period of one hundred years or higher by using a hydrodynamic mathematical model method under the condition of insufficient long-term tidal level data . Background technique [0002] The rapid economic development of my country's coastal areas, especially the coastal development and other projects have further increased the economic weight of the coastal zone. However, due to the particularity of the geographical location, the coastal zone needs to face terrible marine disasters, among which storm surge disasters are frequent. In recent years, both the frequency of storm surge disasters and the economic losses caused by them have shown an obvious upward trend. If the extreme high water level value is underestimated in the calculation, it will en...

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Problems solved by technology

The traditional frequency analysis method has a good effect in calculating the extreme water level represented by a 100-year occurrence in areas with a long tide level series. However, the measured tide level data in most areas of my country is less than 50 years or even less than 30 years. It is difficult to apply in these areas, and the use of shorter data is likely to underestimate the extreme water level with a return period of once in 100 years or higher, with great uncertainty

However, the current problem in our country is that most of the tide level measurement stations have been established for a short time, so there are very few long-term complete tide level series, and the data of the years before the founding of the People's Republic of China are even less, even if they can be obtained, they are intermittent and discontinuous, which is difficult to use for scientific research

The disadvantage of the numerical simulation method is that it has a large amount of calculation, because no matter what kind of statistical method is used to calculate the meteorological factors, the meteorological factors with different return periods generated by these statistical models must be calculated by the hydrodynamic mathematical model, and the number of calculations is large. large

The problem with this method is that it is still difficult to determine the return period of the high water level obtained by various combinations, that is, how to determine how many years the extreme water level that the calculated highest water level is

[0005] In general, there are two main problems in the current research in my country: 1) Most of the tide level series of water level stations are short, and the extreme water level prediction by frequency analysis and extension is relatively uncertain; The simulation of the process and the highest water level is good, but it is still difficult to reflect the corresponding return period

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