Wind power prediction error simulation method considering influence of power output level
A technology of prediction error and simulation method, which is applied in the direction of prediction, calculation, electrical digital data processing, etc., and can solve the problems of not taking into account the influence of the distribution characteristics of the output level and the bias of the research results.
Active Publication Date: 2016-10-26
GANSU ELECTRIC POWER DESIGN INST
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Problems solved by technology
Traditionally, this process usually only simply considers the distribution of forecast errors, but does not take into account the influence of output levels on the distribution characteristics of forecast errors
In fact, the distribution characteristics of the forecast error are related to the output level of wind power. If the simulation of the forecast error is not refined enough, the research results may be biased
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[0045] The flow process of the algorithm of the present invention is as image 3 shown. Record the known wind power output forecast expectation sequence as This sequence is the sequence that needs to be simulated for forecast errors. The corresponding simulation value sequence of wind power prediction error is recorded as According to previous analysis, the concrete flow process of the inventive method is as follows:
[0046] Step 1, according to historical data, divide different forecast output intervals, and obtain the empirical distribution function F of forecast error e . Also, make sure The value of each quantity in .
[0047] Step 2, t=1, the generation of prediction error simulation starts.
[0048] Step 3, generate a sample u of a random variable that obeys a uniform distribution on the [0,1] interval.
[0049] Step 4, according to The inverse function of the forecast error distribution function in the interval to determine the forecast error simulation valu...
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The invention belongs to the technical field of power system simulation method, and relates to a prediction error simulation method considering the influence of a power output level on the distribution characteristics of prediction errors. The method comprises the following steps: 1, solving an empirical distribution function Fe of a prediction error at different predictive power output intervals according to historical data; 2, when t=1, beginning prediction error simulation generation; 3, generating a sample u of random variables complying with uniform distribution at the interval [0, 1]; 4, according to an inverse function of a prediction error distribution function at the interval of Formula (shown in the specification), determining a prediction error simulation value at the moment t (as shown in the specification); and 5, when t=t+1, continuing simulation, and if t reaches a preset simulation number T, ending simulation and outputting a result, otherwise, executing step 3. The method sufficiently utilizes the information included in the historical wind power prediction error, and considers the influence of the power output level on the distribution characteristics of prediction errors, so that the simulation results can provide more accurate basis for studies of power dispatching and the like.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of simulation methods for electric power systems, and in particular relates to a simulation method for wind power prediction errors taking into account the influence of output levels. Background technique [0002] In recent years, wind power has developed rapidly. The inherent volatility of wind energy makes it difficult to accurately predict the output power of wind power. At present, the day-ahead forecasting accuracy of commercial forecasting software is still not ideal, and its forecasting error can reach 20%. However, because the wind speed itself has a large randomness, it is difficult to greatly improve the prediction accuracy of wind power. Therefore, on the basis of the existing forecast level, it may be more meaningful to analyze and grasp the characteristics of the forecast error and accurately characterize the uncertainty of wind power. [0003] In the research related to power system operatio...
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Login to View More IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06F17/50
CPCG06F30/20G06Q10/04G06Q50/06Y02E60/00
Inventor 吴兴全郑昕李秋鹏李志伟宋锋蒋剑张洪源姚天亮刘科李召兄张健李艳
Owner GANSU ELECTRIC POWER DESIGN INST