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Method and device for modeling long-time-scale photovoltaic output time series

A long-time-scale, time-series technology, applied in instrumentation, data processing applications, forecasting, etc., to solve problems such as the inability to achieve long-time scale power forecasting

Pending Publication Date: 2017-04-05
CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RES INST +2
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Problems solved by technology

[0003] Existing weather simulation technology can only realize annual / monthly photovoltaic power forecasting, but cannot realize long-term scale power forecasting, and cannot directly obtain time series that can be used for time series production simulation of power systems. Therefore, it is necessary to construct photovoltaic output time series. In order to accurately grasp the change law of photovoltaic power generation output, it provides essential basic data for time-series production simulation including large-scale new energy, annual new energy consumption capacity analysis, and annual plan formulation

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  • Method and device for modeling long-time-scale photovoltaic output time series

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Embodiment Construction

[0038] The specific implementation manners of the present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0039] Such as figure 1 As shown, a long-term scale photovoltaic output time series modeling method, the method includes:

[0040] (1) Collect the historical data of photovoltaic power plants, and select the photovoltaic output with a time length of 1 year and a time resolution of 15 minutes;

[0041] (2) Obtain the daily weather types corresponding to photovoltaic output from the weather station, including sunny, cloudy, cloudy and changing weather;

[0042] (3) Calculate the transition probabilities between various types of weather respectively; use the Markov chain to simulate the transition process of various types of weather to obtain the transition probabilities between various weather types, and the expression is:

[0043]

[0044] In formula (1), P k is the probability of switching from sunny to other weath...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a method and device for modeling a long-time-scale photovoltaic output time series. The method comprises collecting the historical data of a photovoltaic power station, selecting the photovoltaic output with a time length of 1 year and a time resolution of 15 minutes, and obtaining daily weather types corresponding to the photovoltaic output from a meteorological station, and calculating the transition probability among the respective weathers; generating a simulated time series of the photovoltaic output within a preset time scale and verifying the validity of the simulated time series. The method can obtain the annual and monthly simulated time series satisfying a photovoltaic time series random fluctuation rule according to different requirements, and provides favorable conditions and data support for the time series production simulation of large-scale new energy.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a modeling method and device, in particular to a long-term scale photovoltaic output time series modeling method and device. Background technique [0002] Photovoltaic power generation is the renewable energy technology with the greatest potential and application value after wind power. With the support of a series of supporting policies in our country, photovoltaic power generation has developed rapidly. With the increasing proportion of photovoltaic power generation in the power supply of the entire power system, a deep understanding of the characteristics and laws of photovoltaic output itself can accurately grasp the impact of photovoltaic grid-connected on the power system, so that the power system can more effectively solve the problem of photovoltaic access. [0003] Existing weather simulation technology can only realize annual / monthly photovoltaic power forecasting, but cannot realize long-term scale power forecasting,...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 王伟胜刘纯李驰黄越辉王跃峰董存刘德伟张楠礼晓飞高云峰马烁许晓艳许彦平潘霄锋李丽王江元
Owner CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RES INST
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