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A method and system for clustering and quantitative forecasting of mountain fires on transmission lines

A technology for transmission lines and mountain fires, which is applied in the field of quantitative forecasting methods and systems for mountain fires on transmission lines. It can solve the problems of not considering the suppression of mountain fires, the prediction accuracy needs to be further improved, and it is difficult to accurately guide mountain fire prevention equipment.

Active Publication Date: 2018-01-09
HUNAN XIANGDIAN POWER TEST & RES TECH LTD
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

The invention patent with the patent number 20121002726.3 proposes a method for predicting mountain fires on transmission lines, which can predict the occurrence of mountain fires, that is, whether mountain fires occur, but cannot give the density of mountain fires, and cannot judge the occurrence of mountain fires near transmission lines the severity of
The invention patent with the patent number of 201510255860.4 proposes a transmission line density prediction method. First, its historical data rely on the unified assignment of artificially defined wildfire high-incidence periods, and fail to divide the time coordinates according to the clustering conclusion of the wildfire time series. It is uniformly applicable to areas with different patterns of man-made fire use, and cannot effectively overcome the randomness of wildfire occurrence time; secondly, there are spatial differences in vegetation types, fire use customs and other factors in various places, and the prediction scale greatly affects the accuracy of transmission line wildfire forecasting. Accuracy, the current method has not yet involved the selection of the spatial scale of wildfire forecasting; finally, this method does not consider the suppression effect of high air humidity on the occurrence of wildfires, the forecast accuracy needs to be further improved, and it is difficult to accurately guide the deployment of wildfire prevention equipment

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  • A method and system for clustering and quantitative forecasting of mountain fires on transmission lines
  • A method and system for clustering and quantitative forecasting of mountain fires on transmission lines
  • A method and system for clustering and quantitative forecasting of mountain fires on transmission lines

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Embodiment 1

[0090] Example 1, such as figure 1 As shown, a method for clustering and quantitative forecasting of mountain fires on transmission lines according to an embodiment of the present invention includes:

[0091] Step 1. Select the forecast area, subdivide the forecast area to obtain multiple spatial units, and select the area covering the transmission line as the area to be tested, where the forecast area is a 1°×1° area based on latitude and longitude, and the spatial unit Based on longitude and latitude, it is divided into 0.25°×0.25°. Subdividing the area into multiple spatial units can make the forecast data more accurate and reasonable.

[0092] Step 2, such as figure 2 As shown in Fig. 1, the delineation of a rectangular area completely envelops the forecast area, centering on the intersection point of the diagonal lines of the rectangular area, and expanding to the surroundings with a step difference of equal length of 10 km, and counting different spatial scales to cal...

Embodiment 2

[0142] Embodiment 2, a transmission line mountain fire clustering quantitative forecasting system described in the second embodiment of this law, the system includes:

[0143]The area division module is used to select the forecast area, subdivide the forecast area to obtain multiple spatial units, and select the area covering the transmission line as the area to be tested.

[0144] The spatial unit selection module is used to define a rectangular area to completely envelop the forecast area, take the intersection of the diagonals of the rectangular area as the center, and expand to the surroundings with a step difference of equal length of 10km, and calculate similar meteorological conditions within different spatial scales The ratio of the number of wildfires in the i-th year to the j-th year under the data conditions in the same period D ij , when the spatial scale is greater than A, the number of wildfires continues to satisfy 0.85ij <1.18, choose A as the size of the space...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a power transmission line mountain fire clustering quantitative forecasting method. In steps 1-3, the multi-time coordinate mountain fire forecasting time axis is obtained by means of a cluster analysis method, and the optimal forecasting scale of the forecasting area is obtained by the spatial scale contrast analysis method; and on this basis, in steps 4-5, a forecasting model is established according to the space-time distribution rule obtained in the steps 1-3, and the daily mountain fire amount in the area is forecasted. The invention further discloses a power transmission line mountain fire clustering quantitative forecasting system. By calculating the node historical mountain fire points of each space unit, the air humidity suppressing coefficient and the combustible matter damping coefficient of the day to be measured, the mountain fire forecasting rainfall index of the day to be measured, and the continuous drought influence factor of the day to be measured, the mountain fire generation expect number of the day to be measured of each space unit is predicted, the operationality is high, the forecasting accuracy is high, and the power transmission line mountain fire quantitative forecasting refinement degree is improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power transmission and distribution, in particular to a method and system for clustering and quantitative forecasting of mountain fires on power transmission lines. Background technique [0002] Affected by people's customs of using fire in production and life, large-scale wildfires are extremely prone to occur in transmission line corridors, causing multiple lines to trip and blackout at the same time, and even cause the grid to collapse. Therefore, wildfire has become a hot issue that seriously threatens the safe operation of large power grids and the normal power supply of society. The disposal of mountain fires on transmission lines has high requirements on timeliness, and trips are usually caused 1 to 1.5 hours after the occurrence of wildfires. Shortening the rescue distance of wildfires can improve the rescue rate of wildfires. Carrying out mountain fire forecasting on power transmission lines can...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G08B31/00G08B17/00
CPCG08B17/005G08B31/00
Inventor 陆佳政周特军方针李波吴传平
Owner HUNAN XIANGDIAN POWER TEST & RES TECH LTD
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