Flood season division risk quantitative evaluation method

A technique for quantitative evaluation and risk, applied in the field of risk assessment

Inactive Publication Date: 2017-10-10
WUHAN UNIV
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
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AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Various methods have yielded mixed results, and none of the existing studies has a method for quantitatively assessing flood risk in flood season stages

Method used

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  • Flood season division risk quantitative evaluation method
  • Flood season division risk quantitative evaluation method
  • Flood season division risk quantitative evaluation method

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Embodiment Construction

[0021] The following is a detailed description of the flood season staged risk quantitative assessment method involved in the present invention in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0022]

[0023] The flood season is assumed to be divided into two sub-periods, namely the main flood season and the non-main flood season. The main task of flood season staging is to identify and determine the two time points of the beginning of the main flood season and the end of the main flood season. Among them, the selection of the location at the end of the main flood season plays a major role in flood risk assessment and further flood resource management. Therefore, the present invention mainly considers the influence of the time point selection at the end of the main flood season when performing the flood risk assessment of the flood season phase plan.

[0024] Such as figure 1 As shown, this embodiment provides a flood season staged risk quantitative assessment method based...

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Abstract

The invention provides a flood season division risk quantitative evaluation method. The flood season division risk quantitative evaluation method is characterized by comprising the following steps of 1, sampling the largest flood of a main flood season and a non-flood season in a history sequence; 2, selecting a random variable marginal probability distribution model; 3, deducing a largest flood expression mode of two divided seasons, including a main flood season and a non-main-flood season, which possibly occurs in the whole history sequence time length and a corresponding accumulative probability density function; 4, quantifying the risk that the occurrence of a flood in the non-main-flood season exceeds that in the main flood season, and solving a specific expression formula. The flood season division risk quantitative evaluation method can be widely applied to water resource management practices, the flood risk of all season division schemes can be quantitatively evaluated, and therefore scientific technical support is provided for flood risk evaluation and flood resourcefulness of a river flood season division scheme.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of risk assessment, and in particular relates to a method for quantitatively assessing flood season staged risk based on the risk of floods occurring in non-main flood seasons exceeding the main flood season. technical background [0002] Flood season refers to the period when rivers and lakes floods appear concentrated in a year, and flood disasters are likely to occur. Distinguishing between flood seasons and non-flood seasons is a major advance in human understanding of the characteristics of flood nodular changes, and seeking to further divide flood seasons is a deeper exploration of the law of rain and floods. [0003] Due to the complex and changeable seasonal variation law of rainstorm and flood, the existing methods often study the seasonal variation law of rainstorm and flood through various channels. Generally speaking, it can be divided into two categories: causal analysis and mathematical statistics. Mat...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
CPCG16Z99/00
Inventor 潘正可刘攀高仕达冯茂源
Owner WUHAN UNIV
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