Linear tower transmission line wind deflection discharge probability online early-warning method giving consideration to impact from wind randomness

Abstract

The invention discloses a linear tower transmission line wind deflection discharge probability online early-warning method giving consideration to impact from wind randomness, and the method comprises the steps: building a suspension insulator string wind deflection angle calculation model giving consideration to conductor splitting; calculating the discharge distance of a power transmission line to a linear tower shaped like a wine glass; carrying out the statistics of historical forecast information, comparing the historical forecast information with the actual wind scale of the corresponding historical period, calculating the weak rate, accuracy and strong rate of a forecast wind speed, and the anticlockwise deviation ratio, accuracy and clockwise deviation ratio of a forecast wind direction, and building a forecast wind speed and forecast direction probability distribution model giving consideration to impact from wind randomness; calculating the wind deflection discharge probability of a linear tower transmission line. According to the invention, the method provided by the invention achieves the online prediction of the wind deflection discharge probability of the wind-glass-shaped linear tower transmission line after the wind forecast information is obtained, brings convenience to a power grid operation and scheduling department to know the operation risks of the line in advance, and makes the targeted operation measures for risk reduction.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of transmission line operation reliability for predicting the probability of wind deflection discharge of transmission lines, and specifically refers to an online early warning method for wind deflection discharge probability of straight tower transmission lines considering the influence of wind randomness, which belongs to disaster prevention and mitigation of electric power systems field. Background technique [0002] In the context of climate change, the intensity and frequency of some regional extreme weather and climate events are increasing, especially extreme wind disasters and ice disasters. The report of the SCB2.54 working group of the International Conference on Large Power Grids (CIGRE) pointed out that the line structure and electrical failure caused by severe weather events are the main reasons for affecting the safety of overhead transmission lines. With the development of meteorological scie...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] In view of the inaccurate online warning of the wind deflection discharge rate of the existing transmission lines, this method can reasonably, effectively and more accurately realize the method of forecasting the wind deflection discharge probability of the transmission line with a wine glass type straight tower transmission line under the influence of wind randomness. Help power grid operation and dispatching departments to perceive line operation risks in advance, and take targeted risk reduction operation measures

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