Method for forecasting katsuwonus pelamis fisheries in central and west pacific ocean based on different climatic conditions

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for forecasting katsuwonus pelamis fisheries in central and west pacific ocean based on different climatic conditions. The method comprises the steps of dividing first 20 years before a prediction year into El Nino months, La Nina months and normal months; obtaining SSTA data of an NINO3.4 area in the first 20 years; matching fishing data in the first 20 years with the SSTA data, and dividing the data into historical fishery production data and historical environment data under three climatic conditions; building a fishery forecast model under each climatic condition by utilizing normal distribution, separately selecting 80% of the historical data under the three climatic conditions to train corresponding normal distribution models, and verifying the corresponding normal distribution models by utilizing the 20% residual data, wherein the three models are proven to be good by verification; and dividing a research area into 22 sea areas, performing SSTA data statistics on each sea area, analyzing corresponding SSTA ranges, judging the climatic condition which the research area belongs to, and forecasting distribution of the katsuwonus pelamis fisheries in the research area by utilizing the normal distribution model corresponding to the judged climatic condition.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for forecasting fishing conditions, in particular to a method for forecasting bonito fishing grounds in the central and western Pacific Ocean based on different climatic conditions. Background technique [0002] Skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis) is widely distributed in the tropical, subtropical and subarctic seas of the Pacific Ocean, Atlantic Ocean, and Indian Ocean, and occupies an extremely important position in the world's tuna fishery. 60%-70% of the world's main tuna production comes from the Pacific Ocean, of which 76% comes from the Central and Western Pacific and 56% of the production comes from seine fishing, and the proportion of skipjack fish caught in seine fishing is about 70%-80% . my country began to carry out tuna seine operations in this sea area in 2000, and by 2006 it had developed to a scale of 8 seine ships with an annual output of about 50,000 tons. [0003] Many scholars at home and abroad have d...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, there are relatively few studies on the forecast of the central fishery, and there is no report on the forecast of the fishery under different climatic conditions.

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