Danger assessment method of power grid blackout based on generalized extreme value theory and analytic hierarchy process

An analytic hierarchy process and generalized extreme value technology, applied in the field of risk assessment of power grid blackout accidents, can solve the problems of inability to compare horizontally and lack of classification

Active Publication Date: 2018-05-29
广东电网有限责任公司惠州供电局
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Problems solved by technology

This method cannot effectively conduct horizontal comparisons of similar accidents in ...

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  • Danger assessment method of power grid blackout based on generalized extreme value theory and analytic hierarchy process
  • Danger assessment method of power grid blackout based on generalized extreme value theory and analytic hierarchy process
  • Danger assessment method of power grid blackout based on generalized extreme value theory and analytic hierarchy process

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[0048] The accompanying drawings are for illustrative purposes only, and should not be construed as limitations on this patent; in order to better illustrate this embodiment, certain components in the accompanying drawings will be omitted, enlarged or reduced, and do not represent the size of the actual product; for those skilled in the art It is understandable that some well-known structures and descriptions thereof may be omitted in the drawings. The positional relationship described in the drawings is for illustrative purposes only, and should not be construed as a limitation on this patent.

[0049] Such as figure 1 As shown, a risk assessment method for power grid blackout accidents based on generalized extreme value theory and analytic hierarchy process includes the following steps:

[0050] S1: Extract sample data of load loss;

[0051] S2: Select an appropriate extreme value distribution model;

[0052] S3: Estimate the parameters of the generalized extreme value di...

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Abstract

The invention provides a danger assessment method of power grid blackout based on generalized extreme value theory and analytic hierarchy process, which relates to the technical field of electric power system risk assessment. The method comprises the steps of S1 extracting the sample data of load loss; S2 selecting an appropriate extreme value distribution model; S3 conducting parameter estimationof the generalized extreme value distribution model by means of genetic binary particle swarm optimization based on effective population; S4 analyzing the accident probability of load loss; S5 establishing evaluation index and calculating weight vector by means of analytic hierarchy process; S6 calculating the danger index of load loss. The method is advantageous in that the same type of accidents which happen in different areas can undergo parallel comparison; a clear accident result seriousness grade evaluation index can be established.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power system risk assessment, and more specifically, relates to a method for assessing the risk of power grid blackout accidents based on generalized extremum theory and analytic hierarchy process. Background technique [0002] Extreme value theory is a statistical analysis theory that studies accidents that will have a great impact once they occur. At present, extreme value theory has been gradually applied to the analysis of power systems. It includes the following aspects: using different extreme value distribution methods to calculate the icing return period of the regional power grid; based on the extreme value model, analyzing the failure probability of transmission lines in different periods. Once the power grid load loss accident occurs, it will not only have a significant impact on the power supply company and the society, but also a large-scale blackout accident obeys the power law distribution...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q10/06G06Q50/06G06N3/12
CPCG06N3/126G06Q10/04G06Q10/0639G06Q50/06
Inventor 陈涛威朱凌张素明赖育庭徐大勇陈峰李鸿文张琴彭东明陈伟鑫
Owner 广东电网有限责任公司惠州供电局
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