Wind speed ultra-short term prediction algorithm based on empirical mode decomposition and random forest

An empirical mode decomposition and ultra-short-term forecasting technology, applied in the field of power systems, can solve problems such as difficult acquisition of modeling data, low prediction accuracy, and difficulty in meeting actual production needs with traditional algorithms, and achieve insensitivity to abnormal data and generalization capabilities strong effect

Inactive Publication Date: 2018-06-22
STATE GRID FUJIAN ELECTRIC POWER CO LTD +1
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Problems solved by technology

[0003] However, traditional wind speed prediction methods have problems such as low prediction accuracy, prone to overfitting, sensitivity to bad data, and difficulty in obtaining modeling data.
The existence of these problems makes it difficult for traditional algorithms to meet actual production needs.

Method used

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  • Wind speed ultra-short term prediction algorithm based on empirical mode decomposition and random forest
  • Wind speed ultra-short term prediction algorithm based on empirical mode decomposition and random forest
  • Wind speed ultra-short term prediction algorithm based on empirical mode decomposition and random forest

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Embodiment Construction

[0023] The technical solution of the present invention will be specifically described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0024] An ultra-short-term wind speed prediction algorithm based on empirical mode decomposition and random forest of the present invention obtains components of different time scales by decomposing historical real wind speed data to train the prediction model. The wind speed data at the moment predicts the wind speed at the next moment, and the prediction result of the wind speed at the next moment is obtained; the specific implementation steps of the method are as follows:

[0025] Step S1: Obtain the historical wind speed data of the wind power plant, and the wind speed sampling frequency is once every 10 minutes to form a wind speed time series;

[0026] Step S2: Use the law to screen the bad data in the historical wind speed data and remove them, the formula is as follows:

[0027]

[0028] In the formula, X b is the bth wind sp...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a wind speed ultra-short term prediction algorithm based on empirical mode decomposition and a random forest. The scale velocities at different time are obtained by decomposing historical real wind speed data to train a prediction model, during the wind speed prediction, according to present and previous moment wind speed data, the wind speed at the next moment can be predicated, and a predicated result of the wind speed at the next moment is obtained. The wind speed ultra-short term prediction algorithm has the advantages that the overfitting is not easy to happen, the generalization error is small, the algorithm is not sensitive to abnormal data, and the algorithm can be suitable for the practical production.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of power systems, and in particular relates to an ultra-short-term prediction algorithm of wind speed based on empirical mode decomposition and random forest. Background technique [0002] In recent years, wind power has made great progress as a clean energy source. In some provinces, the installed capacity of wind power has accounted for more than 15%. Wind power generation is intermittent, random, and unstable, which brings great challenges to the safe operation of the power system after wind power is connected to the grid, and also limits the further development of wind power energy. Improving the accuracy of forecasting wind speed or output power of wind power plants can better realize the coordinated dispatch of wind power and traditional energy, reduce the ratio of reserve capacity, and increase the grid connection ratio of wind power. [0003] However, traditional wind speed prediction methods have problems su...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 叶荣胡臻达林章岁吴威王怀远江岳文温步瀛
Owner STATE GRID FUJIAN ELECTRIC POWER CO LTD
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