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Prediction method for shale gas fracturing construction accident

A prediction method and shale gas well technology, applied in the field of accident analysis, prediction and control, can solve the problems of prolonging the construction period, increasing the construction cost, limiting the amount of sand added and the effect of increasing production after fracturing, so as to improve the prediction accuracy, Effect of Residual and Mean Relative Error Reduction

Active Publication Date: 2018-09-25
CHINA PETROLEUM & CHEM CORP +2
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Problems solved by technology

The above-mentioned fracturing construction accidents limit the amount of sand added to fracturing and the effect of post-fracturing stimulation, which complicates the process, prolongs the construction period, and increases the construction cost; the establishment of accident prediction technology is very important for improving the success rate of fracturing and the cost of fracturing. Efficient production of rock gas resources is of great significance

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  • Prediction method for shale gas fracturing construction accident
  • Prediction method for shale gas fracturing construction accident
  • Prediction method for shale gas fracturing construction accident

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Embodiment Construction

[0076] Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, the present invention is described in further detail:

[0077] In the process of shale gas exploitation, the fracturing construction curve records the changes of parameters such as pump pressure, displacement and sand ratio over time, and field operators can understand the operating status of ground equipment, working status of downhole tools and the extension of formation fractures based on this; For example, timely analyze and judge the construction quality according to the change of pump pressure, make correct decisions and take corresponding adjustment measures according to the characteristics of sand plugging and pressure channeling. Therefore, the fracturing construction curve is the most real-time and most direct basis for obtaining the operation and construction status, and its accurate prediction is helpful to reasonably adjust the fracturing construction parameters in advance and prevent and control the occurrence...

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Abstract

The invention provides a prediction method for a shale gas fracturing construction accident and belongs to the field of analysis, prediction and control of accidents. The method includes the steps of(1) obtaining original data from a shale gas well site fracturing construction curve, establishing a GM (1,1) model on the basis of function transformation and solving a residual sequence; (2) establishing a periodic epitaxial model of the residual sequence; (3) generating a gray combination model by using the periodic epitaxial model and performing data reduction on the gray combination model toobtain prediction data; (4) predicting the shale gas fracturing construction accident according to the prediction data, wherein if the original data is original pump pressure, the obtained predictiondata is predicted pump pressure; if the original data is original discharge amount, the obtained prediction data is predicted discharge amount; if the original data is an original sand ratio, the obtained prediction data is a predicted sand ratio.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of accident analysis, prediction and control, and in particular relates to a prediction method for shale gas fracturing construction accidents. Background technique [0002] Staged fracturing of horizontal wells is a key technology for shale gas exploration and development. Through continuous fracturing pumping for a long time, with large fluid volume, large sand volume, and high discharge rate, the shale formation will be opened and a certain scale of fracture reconstruction volume will be formed. The shale gas stored in shale with high permeability has enough flow channels to reach the value of industrial exploitation. During the entire large-scale hydraulic fracturing process of shale gas, due to the differences in geological conditions and the uncertainty of ground equipment, wellbore, downhole tools, operators, etc. for safe construction, it is inevitable that sand plugging and sand addition difficulties will oc...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F17/50
CPCG16Z99/00
Inventor 王海涛胡瑾秋张来斌李奎为张旭东王倩林李洪春李双明
Owner CHINA PETROLEUM & CHEM CORP