Method and system for forecasting top oil temperature of transformer

A top-layer oil temperature and prediction method technology, which is applied in the direction of instruments, special data processing applications, complex mathematical operations, etc., can solve problems such as the inability to guarantee whether the parameter function presets are reasonable, and achieve comprehensive models, interpretability, and data dimensions. broad effect

Inactive Publication Date: 2018-10-16
GLOBAL ENERGY INTERCONNECTION RES INST CO LTD +2
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Problems solved by technology

However, using the top oil temperature to manually establish a prediction model will n

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  • Method and system for forecasting top oil temperature of transformer
  • Method and system for forecasting top oil temperature of transformer

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Example Embodiment

[0033] Embodiments of the present invention are further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings:

[0034] like figure 1 As shown, the prediction method of the present invention includes: based on historical meteorological data, historical oil temperature data and historical load data, establishing a linear regression analysis model of the oil temperature of the top layer of the transformer; based on the historical load data, establishing a load forecast with meteorological and date attributes Model; based on the load forecast model and weather forecast information, determine the load forecast value of the transformer in the future time period; based on the linear regression analysis model prediction and the load forecast value of the transformer in the future time period, predict the maximum oil temperature of the transformer in the future time period.

[0035] like figure 2 As shown, the present invention uses multi-dimensional meteorology, top oil tem...

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Abstract

The invention provides a method and a system for forecasting the top oil temperature of a transformer. The method comprises the following steps: based on historical meteorological data, historical oiltemperature data and historical load data, a linear regression analysis model of the top oil temperature of the transformer is established; based on historical load data, a load forecasting model with meteorology and date attributes is established; based on the load forecasting model and meteorological forecasting information, the load forecasting value of the transformer in future time length isdetermined; and based on the linear regression analysis model and the load forecasting value of the transformer in future time length, the maximum oil temperature of the transformer in future time length is forecasted. The top oil temperature forecasting model of the transformer constructed by the invention realizes short-term oil temperature early warning analysis and provides a reference for transformer condition maintenance and accident prevention.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of transformer state monitoring and fault early warning, in particular to a method and system for predicting oil temperature at the top layer of a transformer. Background technique [0002] The operating life and load capacity of oil-immersed power transformers are closely related to oil temperature. Transformers operating at high temperatures are prone to early failure due to overheating. The traditional method regards thermal-related parameters as electrical-related parameters, and artificially establishes a transformer top oil temperature prediction model through thermal-electrical comparison: the input parameters of the model are confirmed, and the functional form of the model is preset. However, using the top oil temperature to artificially establish a prediction model will not guarantee whether the selection of parameters and the presupposition of functions are reasonable. [0003] Therefore, it is necessary to...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F17/50G06F17/18
CPCG06F17/18G06F30/20G06F2119/04G06F2119/08
Inventor 周爱华郑晓崑梁潇胡斌史宇超陈其鹏
Owner GLOBAL ENERGY INTERCONNECTION RES INST CO LTD
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