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A method for analyzing influence of a crime risk environmental factor by considering a background effect

A technology of environmental factors and background effects, applied in data processing applications, instruments, character and pattern recognition, etc., can solve the problem of not considering the impact of crime risk, not considering the impact of background effects, etc., to achieve stable crime risk estimation and impact effect. precise effect

Pending Publication Date: 2019-05-03
江苏省城镇化和城乡规划研究中心
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Problems solved by technology

However, the existing regression analysis models of crime geography, no matter the non-spatial regression model or the spatial regression model, do not consider the influence of the background effect
That is to say, in the analysis of the impact of environmental factors on crime risk, when the administrative unit is selected as the basic geographic analysis unit, the existing analysis models do not consider the impact of large-scale administrative units (such as the streets to which communities belong) on ​​small-scale administrative units (such as neighborhoods). ) impact on crime risk

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  • A method for analyzing influence of a crime risk environmental factor by considering a background effect
  • A method for analyzing influence of a crime risk environmental factor by considering a background effect
  • A method for analyzing influence of a crime risk environmental factor by considering a background effect

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Embodiment Construction

[0061] The technical solution of the present invention will be further specifically described below through the embodiments and in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0062] Such as figure 1 As shown, this embodiment takes a certain district of a certain city as the research object, selects the community as the basic geographic analysis unit, and uses the number of burglary cases from 2012 to 2015 to model how to analyze the environment while taking into account the background effect. Factors that affect burglary risk.

[0063] This embodiment relates to a method for analyzing the impact of environmental factors on crime risk taking into account the background effect, and its workflow is as follows figure 2 As shown, it mainly includes the following steps:

[0064] Step 1. Count the number of burglary cases in each community in this district of the city.

[0065] Step 2, environment factor variable selection and preprocessing. On the spatial scale of the communi...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a crime risk environmental factor influence analysis method considering a background effect. The method comprises the following steps: (1) counting a dependent variable, namelya crime committing number; (2) selecting environmental factor variables, and performing pretreatment such as collinearity diagnosis, selection, standardization and the like on the environmental factor variables; (3) carrying out Bayesian modeling considering the background effect, wherein the Bayesian modeling comprises model framework construction, prior assignment, model implementation, convergence judgment and the like; and (4) result analysis including sensitivity analysis, environmental factor influence analysis, background effect analysis and the like. According to the method, a unifiedframework is used for solving the problem of spatial autocorrelation frequently existing in analysis of influence of criminal risk environmental factors; the background effect is introduced into thefield of criminal geography for the first time, the view angle of considering the background effect in analysis of the influence of the criminal risk environmental factors is achieved, and the problemthat the background effect is ignored in previous analysis is solved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the fields of geographic information science, data modeling and analysis, and relates to analysis of the impact of environmental factors on crime risk, in particular to a method for analyzing the impact of environmental factors on crime risk in consideration of background influence. Background technique [0002] There is a certain correlation between criminal activities and environmental factors such as social economy. Analyzing the influence of these environmental factors, that is, potential crime risk factors, on criminal activities is of great significance for preventing crimes and making crime prevention and control decisions. At present, the analysis models that can be used include non-spatial regression model and spatial regression model. [0003] Non-spatial regression models assume that the dependent variable (crime number or crime rate) is independent and identically distributed. This assumption is often untenable in...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F16/29G06K9/62G06Q50/26
Inventor 刘洪强朱欣焰周生元刘震张东映尤雨婷
Owner 江苏省城镇化和城乡规划研究中心
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