8 results about "Consequence analysis" patented technology

The present application relates to the technical field of power system, specifically relates to a kind of power grid outage consequence analysis method considering supply chain-gas-electricity fault conduction, comprising the following steps: S1, electrical network coupling relationship modeling: identification key coupling point;S2, supply chain weak link analysis: assess potential high-risk link in system;S3, gas pipeline network fault modeling: establish the pressure and flow calculation model of natural gas pipeline network;S4, gas-electricity coupling component modeling: establish the mathematical model of gas turbine and compressor;S5, urban power grid fault modeling: assess the operating state of power grid under fault;S6, outage consequence evaluation index construction: quantify social influence and recovery priority under different fault scenarios;The present application can systematically reveal the cascading propagation path of electrically coupled network under fault condition, effectively identify high-risk coupling components and weak links, and improve the understanding depth and fault assessment accuracy of complex coupled energy systems.

The invention discloses an earthquake emergency scheduling method and system for a diversion type hydropower station, and relates to the technical field of hydropower station scheduling control, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining multi-source safety data in real time through a data collection unit, and generating an alarm; constructing a fault tree based on the alarm, calculating an event occurrence probability, expanding an event tree path, and evaluating a risk degree in combination with an accident consequence; dividing each event path into a risk area and a risk level according to the assessment risk degree, and executing an emergency scheduling strategy for different risk levels; and after each scheduling is implemented, the security alarm is collected again, and the fault tree model is updated, so that continuous dynamic response is realized. According to the method, multi-source data of earthquakes, units, dams, communication and the like are collected in real time, potential risks can be comprehensively identified, probability calculation and accident consequence analysis are combined, and quantitative assessment and grading of the risks are achieved. The scientificity and the accuracy of emergency decision making are improved, and the adaptability and the robustness of emergency scheduling are improved through continuous feedback and dynamic optimization.

The application discloses a nuclear power plant pipeline failure consequence evaluation method based on internal water-flooded PSA, and comprises the following steps: obtaining pipeline parameters of a target pipeline, taking the target pipeline as a water-flooded source, determining affected structures, systems or components after water-flooding and water-flooding propagation paths; performing water-flooding scenario analysis and water-flooding consequence analysis, determining direct and indirect influences caused by target pipeline failure, and realizing qualitative analysis of target pipeline failure consequences; based on the results of the qualitative analysis, performing quantitative analysis of the target pipeline failure consequences, calculating a core damage condition probability and a radioactive early release condition probability, determining a target pipeline failure consequence level, and completing pipeline failure consequence evaluation. The application realizes qualitative analysis of pipeline failure consequences by dividing water-flooded areas after pipeline failure, analyzing water-flooding scenarios, analyzing water-flooding consequences and analyzing break isolation possibilities, and then obtains accurate quantitative values of pipeline failure consequences, thereby improving the accuracy of pipeline failure consequence evaluation.

The invention provides a motor train unit key component repair decision-making method and system based on information partition RCM, and relates to the technical field of motor train unit key component repair, and the method comprises the steps: obtaining a minimum maintenance unit for sorting motor train unit key components, carrying out the grade division of the minimum maintenance unit through employing a failure mode and consequence analysis method, and carrying out the classification of the minimum maintenance unit; obtaining a division result of each part; according to a Kaplan-Meier estimation method, fault data in division results of all the components are cut off, and a normal distribution model, a logarithmic normal distribution model and a dual-parameter Weibull distribution model are established; calculating a distribution model with a minimum root-mean-square error value, and further calculating a component fault influence factor of the optimal reliability model to obtain an information partition model; and constructing a motor train unit key component repair decision scheme, and realizing fault record management, life characteristic analysis and maintenance optimization decision of the motor train unit key component. The maintenance efficiency of key parts of the motor train unit and the resource utilization efficiency are improved, the maintenance cost is reduced, and the operation reliability of the motor train unit is enhanced.

This invention provides a method and system for pre-analyzing the impact of public figures' statements based on multi-agent intelligence. The method includes: first, a social background generation module retrieves background information and related social issues of the public figure in parallel, constructing a semantic environment that closely resembles reality. Then, the core multi-agent discussion module is activated, driving multiple agents to conduct multiple rounds of simulated discussions. This process is not simple text analysis, but a dynamic simulation of the clash of viewpoints, the evolution of positions, and the fermentation of public opinion in real society. Finally, the consequence analysis module outputs a structured, multi-dimensional risk report based on the simulation results. This transforms an invisible, future public opinion risk into a quantifiable and analyzable "sandbox simulation" result through technological means, achieving a fundamental shift from "passive firefighting" to "proactive fire prevention." Its technological superiority is unmatched by existing post-event negative situation analysis tools.

The application discloses an industrial production operation safety knowledge question and answer method and system based on a large language model, which firstly constructs production operation safety knowledge question and answer pairs and a production operation safety specification knowledge dataset.Secondly, a large language segmentation model is constructed, and a special segmenter is obtained by training the safety specification knowledge dataset to segment the production operation related text to obtain a safety specification knowledge base.Then, the safety problem and the safety specification knowledge base are vectorized to generate the knowledge base.Finally, a binary similarity measure is constructed to calculate the similarity between the safety vector and the text block vector in the knowledge base, recall the similar text of the question, and use the safety operation large language model to infer the operation safety precautions and the risk accident consequence analysis conclusion.The application replaces the functions of the safety personnel in the traditional operation, significantly reduces the labor cost and improves the operation efficiency, and can provide the operation safety precautions and the risk accident consequence analysis conclusion.

The application provides a natural gas pipeline third-party damage accident early warning method based on a dynamic Bayesian network. The method comprises the following steps: first, third-party damage accident factor identification; second, risk accident scene building; third, accident consequence analysis, an ESD is used to build a sequence diagram about the natural gas pipeline failure consequences caused by the third-party damage; fourth, node probability calculation; fifth, DBN dynamic quantitative modeling coupled with the ESD and the FT; sixth, third-party accident probability dynamic analysis based on the DBN model; and seventh, risk control measures are summarized according to the failure probability analysis results. The method can obtain the pipeline failure risk probability by calling historical data, calculating the occurrence probability of each factor by using a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, and reasoning the input data information of the Bayesian network as the data information, and the probability information is combined with the accident consequence analysis method to perform early warning.

The invention provides a fuel operation accident radioactive consequence analysis method based on a staged release mechanism. The fuel operation accident radioactive consequence analysis method comprises the following steps: S1, setting an initial source item composition of damaged fuel release, wherein the initial source item composition comprises iodine in an initial form and inert gas; s2, radioactive release is divided into two stages, and release models of the two stages are constructed: the first stage is bubble instantaneous release, and the second stage is element iodine re-precipitation release; s3, calculating a dynamic decontamination factor of the element iodine in the water layer according to the first stage and the second stage; s4, establishing a release path and dose calculation model of the radioactive substance; and S5, setting an acceptance criterion and judging a result. According to the invention, refined simulation of accident release behaviors and accurate prediction of key position doses are realized. The method can support the optimization design, reduce the construction cost, improve the application passing rate of the license, and provide a scientific basis for accident alleviation and emergency response.