The invention discloses a method for estimating the yield of
winter wheat by assimilating the characteristics of a
leaf area index time-sequence curve. The method is implemented through the following steps: S1, performing
global sensitivity analysis on a
crop model and completing parameter regionalization of the
crop model; S2, synthesizing the MODIS LAI (
moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer leaf area index) time-sequence curve; S3, performing filtering
processing on the LAI time-sequence curve; S4, performing
curve fitting and extracting key characteristic points; S5, operating the
crop model in
area coverage, performing
curve fitting on the LAI time-sequence curve obtained by
simulation and extracting the key characteristic points on the curve; and S6, establishing a cost function according to dates of three key characteristic points which are respectively obtained in S4 and S5, taking
remote sensing observation error as weight for summating and further getting a total cost function, minimizing the total cost function to rapidly converge the cost function, and finally gathering according to an administrative boundary when convergence conditions are met and outputting a yield result. According to the method disclosed by the invention, the assimilation precision is improved, the affects caused by the situation that an MODIS LAI
product system is lower are overcome and the method is further suitable for estimating the yield of the
winter wheat at regional scale.