Method for extracting and incorporating multi-source live spatio-temporal forecasting factor into mode interpretation application

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for extracting and incorporating multi-source live spatio-temporal forecasting factor into mode interpretation application. A multi-source live spatio-temporal forecasting factor calculation method, the technical process and the software system serve as an independent live forecasting factor pre-processing module in the mode interpretation application and post-processing process, and live forecasting factors with weather forecast indication significance are extracted and prepared; a multi-source live space forecasting factor of hour-level and even minute-level rolling updating is added into the forecasting factor, the defect that high-frequency rolling objective meteorological forecasting cannot be achieved due to the fact that the forecasting frequency of a global numerical forecasting mode is low is overcome, and an effective technical means depending on real-condition updating supporting rolling forecasting is provided. According to the balance between the actual forecasting demand and the operation efficiency, an objective weather forecasting system of hour-level and even minute-level rolling updating based on high-frequency updating of the live space forecasting factor can be developed, and the forecasting accuracy of high-frequency rolling fine weather elements is further remarkably improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of weather forecasting, and in particular relates to a method for extracting multi-source real-time space-time forecasting factors and incorporating them into model interpretation applications. Background technique [0002] At present, meteorological services are developing in the direction of refined and seamless smart grid weather forecasting. The so-called intelligence focuses on exploiting the extreme capabilities of objective weather forecasting. Objective weather forecasting, that is, relying entirely on objective technical methods to generate forecasts of weather elements such as temperature, precipitation, wind, humidity, cloud cover, sky conditions, and weather phenomena, without manual intervention by forecasters. Reliable, precise, and rich multi-source real-time data, as well as the rapid development of numerical forecasting models, provide prerequisites and strong support for refined objective w...

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Problems solved by technology

There are also individual studies that try to use the actual information of points around the forecast site as a predictor into the modeling process (Sebastian Trepte et al., 2018), but since the selected site is the actual value of a nearby station at a moment before the start of the forecast, the actual value The time and the close distance to the forecast site determine that the impact of the actual situation on the timeliness of the future forecast must be very limited; there are also live data as the source of real-time rolling corrections to the forecast, using the latest live data of the forecast site and the error of the previous forecast to achieve The time-weighted correction of the later aging, but because the interpretation and application forecast models of different forecasting aging are established separately, they are different, and the daily changes of the forecast elements and their error characteristics cause the inconsistency of the forecast error between different forecasting aging, so The effect is also very limited

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