A method for analyzing the risk transfer law of flood control dispatching of reservoir groups

Abstract

The invention discloses a risk transfer law analysis method for flood control dispatching of reservoir groups, which includes: determining the risk element of each reservoir and the uncertainty sequence of each risk element, and obtaining the correspondence of each uncertainty sequence based on the flood control dispatching model The highest water level sequence of flood regulation; the information entropy of each uncertainty sequence and the risk entropy of each highest level sequence of flood regulation are calculated by using the information entropy theory; Information entropy and risk entropy, construct the risk model of the reservoir and analyze the risk transfer law of each risk element on each reservoir. The present invention proposes to construct the risk model of the reservoir based on the information entropy and risk entropy corresponding to the risk element of each reservoir and / or its upstream reservoir, which can effectively reflect the direct or indirect transmission influence of the risk element on flood control dispatching, so as to analyze the risk element The law is transmitted in the flood control dispatching system, which provides a basis for flood control risk management and a reference for the formulation of flood control dispatching schemes.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of reservoir flood control dispatching risk assessment, and more specifically relates to a method for analyzing risk transmission rules of reservoir group flood control dispatching. Background technique [0002] The combined flood control dispatching of reservoir groups is one of the important technical means for flood control and disaster reduction in the basin. Through joint dispatch of reservoir groups, the flood control pressure of the reservoir itself and downstream flood control control points can be effectively reduced, thereby improving the comprehensive benefits of flood control projects. There are many uncertain factors (risk elements) in the real-time flood control dispatching process of reservoir groups: such as forecast uncertainty, discharge capacity curve uncertainty and water level-storage capacity uncertainty. These uncertain factors directly or indirectly lead to deviations in the results of flood c...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] The present invention provides a method for analyzing the risk transmission law of flood control dispatching of reservoir groups, which is used to solve the problem that the existing flood control risk assessment method cannot analyze the transfer law of risk elements in the flood control dispatching system and effectively feed back and control the safety of the flood control dispatching system based on the risk value question

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