Analysis method for flood control scheduling risk transfer rules of reservoir groups

Abstract

The invention discloses an analysis method for flood control scheduling risk transfer rules of reservoir groups which comprises the steps of determining a risk element of each reservoir and an uncertainty sequence of each risk element, and obtaining a flood control highest water level sequence corresponding to each uncertainty sequence based on a flood control scheduling model; calculating the information entropy of each uncertainty sequence and the risk entropy of each flood regulation highest water level sequence by adopting an information entropy theory; and based on the information entropyand the risk entropy corresponding to the to-be-analyzed risk element of each reservoir and / or the upstream reservoir thereof, constructing a risk model of the reservoir and analyzing a risk transferrule of each risk element on each reservoir based on the information entropy and the risk entropy corresponding to the risk element of each reservoir and / or the upstream reservoir. By constructing the risk model of the reservoir, the direct or indirect transfer influence of the risk elements on flood control scheduling can be effectively reflected, so that the transfer rule of the risk elements in the flood control scheduling system is analyzed, a basis is provided for flood control risk management, and a reference is provided for making a flood control scheduling scheme.

Description

technical field

[0001] The invention belongs to the field of reservoir flood control dispatching risk assessment, and more specifically relates to a method for analyzing risk transmission rules of reservoir group flood control dispatching. Background technique

[0002] The combined flood control dispatching of reservoir groups is one of the important technical means for flood control and disaster reduction in the basin. Through joint dispatch of reservoir groups, the flood control pressure of the reservoir itself and downstream flood control control points can be effectively reduced, thereby improving the comprehensive benefits of flood control projects. There are many uncertain factors (risk elements) in the real-time flood control dispatching process of reservoir groups: such as forecast uncertainty, discharge capacity curve uncertainty and water level-storage capacity uncertainty. These uncertain factors directly or indirectly lead to deviations in the results of flood c...

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