The invention discloses a tailing pond layered index safety assessment and early-warning method and system. The method comprises the steps that a three-level safety index system is built, wherein the three-level safety index system comprises four second-level indexes which are the stockpiling system, a drainage system, a risk system and a management system and fifteen three-level indexes which are the pond water level, the rainfall capacity and the like; a tailing pond safety assessment model is built, and the safety index system is utilized for assessing the overall safety state of a tailing pond; a tailing pond safety early-warning model is built, and early-warning judgment is carried out; the safety early-warning model comprehensively figures out a dynamic change curve of the future pond water level in the flood season by means of data collected in real time and weather forecast information transmitted by the network, the data collected in real time and measured by the safety assessment model to carry out comprehensive safety assessment and evaluation on the tailing pond, dangerous trend classification is carried out according to assessment, then the classification information is put into a pond water level-dam break model, the dam break risk is comprehensively calculated according to the classification information and a predicted pond water level value, and early-warning judgment is carried out according to the risk. The early-warning effect is accurate, reasonable and comprehensive.