Earthquake random event set simulation method considering large earthquake time correlation

Abstract

The invention relates to the field of seismic engineering and the field of giant disaster insurance services, and provides a seismic random event set simulation method considering large seismic time correlation, which comprises the following steps: determining seismic activity parameters on a seismic zone and a potential seismic source area; setting a random event set seismic sequence time length;for the potential seismic source area, generating a seismic random event set according to seismic magnitude grades; adopting a Poisson process model to obtain the magnitude, the size and the time ofthe earthquake for the low-magnitude gear; adopting a time correlation process model for a high-magnitude gear to obtain the magnitude, the size and the time of an earthquake; and integrating the seismic directories of the potential seismic source regions to obtain a seismic directory on the whole seismic zone. The invention creatively proposes that the seismic activity on the seismic zone integrally meets the Poisson distribution (time independent model) in statistical significance, and meanwhile, the potential seismic source region locally adopts a large seismic time correlation model, so that the whole and the local are organically combined, the accuracy and the practicability of seismic random event set simulation are greatly improved, and the method has a good application prospect.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of earthquake engineering and the field of catastrophe insurance business, in particular to an earthquake random event set simulation method considering the time correlation of large earthquakes, which can be used for earthquake risk analysis. Background technique [0002] The Monte Carlo simulation method, also known as the stochastic simulation method, is a method of computer simulation using random numbers with various probability distributions. This method performs random observation sampling with the system under study, and through the observation and statistics of a large number of sample values , to obtain some parameters of the system under study. Therefore, as long as the probability model of earthquake occurrence can be reasonably expressed, that is, the distribution law of seismic events in a certain area in time and space can be obtained, then the earthquake sequence can be directly simulated by Monte Carl...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] (1) Seismic activity generally adopts a time-independent Poisson process model. The Poisson model is statistically inappropriate and cannot properly reflect the process of earthquakes from gestation to earthquake occurrence, especially for high-magnitude earthquakes, which often have obvious periodic recurrence ;

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