Non- consistent hydrological frequency calculation method based on GAMLSS model

A technology of hydrological frequency and calculation method, applied in calculation, database design/maintenance, structured data retrieval, etc., can solve the problem of non-uniform hydrological frequency, achieve scientific and reasonable calculation process and method, strong operability, reduce The effect of technical risk

Pending Publication Date: 2020-09-11
CHANGJIANG RIVER SCI RES INST CHANGJIANG WATER RESOURCES COMMISSION
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Problems solved by technology

At present, there is no standard process and mature method for using GAMLSS model to analyze non-uniform hydrological frequency, and further research is needed

Method used

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  • Non- consistent hydrological frequency calculation method based on GAMLSS model
  • Non- consistent hydrological frequency calculation method based on GAMLSS model
  • Non- consistent hydrological frequency calculation method based on GAMLSS model

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specific Embodiment

[0054] The invention is used to calculate the inconsistency frequency of the quarterly inflow runoff sequence of Zhanghe Reservoir in Hubei Province from 1963 to 2016.

[0055] Step 1, Build figure 2 The distribution function library shown.

[0056] Step 2, Build image 3 The fitted pattern library is shown.

[0057] Step 3, fitting the hydrological series

[0058] For Zhanghe Reservoir winter, spring, summer, and autumn inflow series, based on R software programming, the GAMLSS model was used to fit each fitting mode, and the fitting results under different modes were obtained.

[0059] Step 4, select the alternate optimal mode

[0060] The fitting results of each inflow sequence under each mode are obtained from Step 3 (see Table 1). For winter, spring, summer, and autumn inflow sequences, the one with the smallest AIC value is selected as the backup optimal mode, that is, mode 47 , Mode 26, Mode 38, and Mode 36.

[0061] Table 1 Fitting results of inflow series (AIC ...

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Abstract

The invention provides a non-consistent hydrological frequency calculation method based on a GAMLSS model. The non-consistent hydrological frequency calculation method comprises: constructing a distribution function library; constructing a fitting mode library; fitting the non-consistent hydrological sequence in each fitting mode by using a GAMLSS model; AIC values of fitting results in differentmodes are compared, and the mode with the minimum AIC value is selected as a standby optimal mode; checking whether the fitting effect of the standby optimal mode is obviously greater than that of other simpler modes or not by adopting a likelihood ratio checking method, and determining the optimal mode; evaluating the fitting effect of the optimal mode through residual analysis; judging whether adistribution function library and a fitting mode library need to be reconstructed or not; and according to the optimal mode and the fitting result thereof, analyzing to obtain the non-consistency frequency of the hydrological sequence. According to the method, a distribution function library suitable for most hydrological sequences and a fitting mode library capable of accurately describing the quantitative relation between distribution parameters and time are constructed, and the proposed non-uniform hydrological frequency calculation process and method are scientific, reasonable and high inoperability.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of hydrological frequency analysis, in particular to a non-uniform hydrological frequency calculation method based on the GAMLSS model. Background technique [0002] The hydrological sequence is the data reflecting the regular phenomenon of hydrology in a certain period of time, which is affected by many factors such as climate conditions, natural geographical conditions and human activities. In recent years, due to changes in the underlying surface caused by climate change and human activities, the physical causes of the hydrological series have changed, which is manifested in the significant changes in the probability distribution pattern or distribution parameters of the hydrological series within the research time range. Consistency assumptions in frequency analysis no longer hold. Accurately analyzing the frequency of hydrological sequences under non-uniform conditions is of great significance for disaster predi...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F16/21G06F16/2458G06F16/29
CPCG06F16/212G06F16/2462G06F16/2474G06F16/29
Inventor 陈述肖雪李清清宋雅静宋基权吴江吕志祥许继军尹正杰王冬董玲燕杨春花丁培中
Owner CHANGJIANG RIVER SCI RES INST CHANGJIANG WATER RESOURCES COMMISSION
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