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Method and device for predicting infectious disease trend based on asymptomatic infected person

An infectious disease and infected person technology, applied in the field of medical data processing, can solve problems such as insufficient consideration, failure to consider the impact of asymptomatic infections, and reduction of the accuracy of infectious disease model predictions, to achieve the effect of improving accuracy

Active Publication Date: 2020-10-02
YIDU CLOUD (BEIJING) TECH CO LTD
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Problems solved by technology

[0004] In related technologies, when predicting the epidemic data based on the above model, the impact of asymptomatic infections on the epidemic is not considered, and the prediction is only made according to a fixed and single order of infection. People in the incubation period are distinguished, and the people in the incubation period are distinguished, which reduces the accuracy of the infectious disease model prediction

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  • Method and device for predicting infectious disease trend based on asymptomatic infected person
  • Method and device for predicting infectious disease trend based on asymptomatic infected person
  • Method and device for predicting infectious disease trend based on asymptomatic infected person

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Embodiment Construction

[0033] Example embodiments will now be described more fully with reference to the accompanying drawings. Example embodiments may, however, be embodied in many forms and should not be construed as limited to the examples set forth herein; rather, these embodiments are provided so that this disclosure will be thorough and complete and will fully convey the concept of example embodiments to those skilled in the art.

[0034]Furthermore, the described features, structures, or characteristics may be combined in any suitable manner in one or more embodiments. In the following description, numerous specific details are provided in order to give a thorough understanding of embodiments of the present disclosure. However, those skilled in the art will appreciate that the technical solutions of the present disclosure may be practiced without one or more of the specific details, or other methods, components, means, steps, etc. may be employed. In other instances, well-known methods, app...

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Abstract

The embodiment of the invention provides a method and device for predicting an infectious disease trend based on an asymptomatic infected person. The method comprises the following steps: acquiring known epidemic situation data of a target infectious disease in a preset time period; according to the known epidemic situation data, determining the current removal probability of the asymptomatic infected person in the incubation period and the infection ability indexes of the asymptomatic infected person in different periods; and predicting epidemic situation data of the target infectious diseasein the future according to the probability that the asymptomatic infected person is currently removed in the incubation period, the infection ability indexes of the different periods, the known epidemic situation data and a pre-trained infectious disease model for the target infectious disease. In the susceptibility stage, the incubation stage and the removal stage, the influence of the asymptomatic infectors is fused, and the infection sequence of the asymptomatic infectors is increased in the sensory disease model, so that the prediction accuracy of the infectious disease model is improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The disclosure relates to the technical field of medical data processing, and specifically relates to a method, device, storage medium and electronic equipment for predicting the trend of infectious diseases based on asymptomatic infected persons. Background technique [0002] The infectious disease model is based on the study of the transmission speed, spatial scope, transmission route, and dynamic mechanism of infectious diseases, and is used to guide the effective prevention and control of infectious diseases. [0003] In the infectious disease model SEIR, the population is infected in the order of the susceptible period (Susceptible, S), the latent period (Exposed, E), the infectious period (Infectious, I) and the removal period (Remove, R). [0004] In related technologies, when predicting the epidemic data based on the above model, the impact of asymptomatic infections on the epidemic is not considered, and the prediction is only made according t...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G16H50/80
CPCG16H50/80
Inventor 焦增涛
Owner YIDU CLOUD (BEIJING) TECH CO LTD
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