Method for analyzing uncertainty of accident reproduction result under complex uncertain condition
A technology of uncertainty and analysis method, which is applied in the field of uncertainty analysis of accident reproduction results under complex uncertain conditions, and can solve the problems of calculation uncertainty, uncertainty result discrimination, etc.
Inactive Publication Date: 2020-11-03
CHANGSHA UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
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[0004] In view of the fact that the existing research results do not have a comprehensive solution for systematically solving calculation uncertainty, uncertain result discrimination and multi-source result fusion, the present invention proposes a method for analyzing the uncertainty of accident reproduction results under complex uncertain conditions, and the implementation steps are as follows:
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Embodiment 1
[0038] For an accident, based on four uncertain traces, three models are selected to reproduce the accident, and the uncertainty of the accident reproduction results is systematically analyzed through the following steps:
[0039] S1: According to the uncertain information of traces, three models are selected to obtain three uncertain accident reproduction results A1, A2 and A3, and the sample size of the Monte Carlo method is 10 in the calculation. 7 .
[0040] S2: Compare the lower bounds of the results A1, A2, and A3, and select the minimum value a as the lower bound of the output result; similarly, compare the upper bounds of the results A1, A2, and A3, and select the maximum value b as the upper bound of the output result. Further divide the interval [a,b] into 10 equal parts, and each equal part is recorded as [a i ,b i ], i=1,...,10.
[0041] S3: Evaluate the 10 sub-intervals through the three model results, and obtain the evaluation matrix of the model for the outpu...
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The invention provides a method for analyzing uncertainty of an accident reproduction result under a complex uncertain condition in order to solve the problem that an existing research result does nothave a comprehensive scheme for systematically solving the problems of calculation uncertainty, uncertain result discrimination and multi-source result fusion. The method comprises the steps of obtaining a plurality of uncertain accident reproduction results according to traces, different models and an existing calculation uncertainty analysis method, determining n3 sub-intervals of a final output result according to the uncertain accident reproduction results, evaluating the n3 sub-intervals by using the obtained multi-model uncertain results to obtain an evaluation matrix of the models to the sub-intervals, and further calculating the reliability of each model according to the evaluation matrix; and after the obvious abnormal reliability model and the result thereof are eliminated, calculating probability information of each sub-interval in combination with the model reliability, the evaluation matrix and the n3 sub-intervals, and finally outputting the sub-intervals and the probability information thereof as a final uncertainty analysis result. Compared with the prior art, the technical scheme provided by the invention has the beneficial effects that the calculation uncertaintyproblem in accident reproduction can be analyzed, the advantages and disadvantages of uncertain model results can be judged, the uncertain results obtained by multiple models can be effectively fused, and a system solution is provided for uncertainty analysis of accident reproduction results.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of accident reproduction, and more specifically, relates to an uncertainty analysis method for accident reproduction results under complex uncertain conditions. Background technique [0002] Accident reconstruction is an important means to carry out in-depth investigation of traffic accidents. Through reconstruction of accidents, many valuable information such as vehicle speed and detailed injury of human body can be obtained. However, both the model and traces used for accident reproduction contain uncertainties. The uncertainty of the traces is mainly caused by the gradual disappearance of the traces over time, while the uncertainty of the model is mainly caused by the inconsistency between the model scene and the real accident scene. How to obtain an objective accident reproduction result under the comprehensive action of such complex and uncertain conditions has become a very valuable research topic. [0003] Amo...
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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/06
CPCG06Q10/06393G06Q10/067
Inventor 邹铁方刘朱紫
Owner CHANGSHA UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY