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Fusion rainfall forecasting method based on multi-model integration

A multi-model and numerical forecasting technology, applied in weather condition forecasting, meteorology, measuring devices, etc., can solve problems such as the inability to provide high-quality forecasts of convective weather systems, improve forecasting effects, improve accuracy of landing areas, and improve accuracy sexual effect

Pending Publication Date: 2021-08-17
武汉超碟科技有限公司
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Problems solved by technology

[0002] At present, the short-term nowcasting technology based on radar observation and echo identification, tracking, and extrapolation cannot provide high-quality forecasts for the development and evolution of convective weather systems over 2 hours, while mesoscale numerical models are useful in short-term forecasting of convective-scale quantitative precipitation. The big shortcoming is that the integration of nowcasting and numerical forecasting has become the most important way and means to provide effective forecasting of convective scale weather systems, especially convective heavy precipitation 0-6h

Method used

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  • Fusion rainfall forecasting method based on multi-model integration
  • Fusion rainfall forecasting method based on multi-model integration
  • Fusion rainfall forecasting method based on multi-model integration

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Embodiment 1

[0030] The specific steps of the quantitative precipitation estimation calculation scheme in S2 are as follows:

[0031] (1) Interpolate the radar quantitative precipitation estimation (grid point data) to the automatic station site.

[0032] (2) Calculate the precipitation "observation increment E" of each observation station, that is, the deviation between the radar quantitative precipitation estimation and the automatic station precipitation observation.

[0033] (3) Use the Cressman analysis technique to calculate the deviation increment C of the grid point

[0034]

[0035] In the formula, Indicates the weight of the station value within the influence radius to the grid point analysis, d is the distance between the station and the grid point, which is smaller than the influence radius R, and R is selected as 10km, which is 10 times the grid distance.

[0036] (4) Use the calculated grid point deviation increment to correct the radar quantitative precipitation estima...

Embodiment 2

[0039] The 0-6h quantitative precipitation forecast calculation scheme based on nowcasting technology in S2 is based on the original forecast timeliness of 0-2h, by adjusting the "extrapolation" algorithm and parameters, the echo forecast timeliness is extended to 6h, and then Using a local Z.R relationship, the 0-6h quantitative precipitation forecast based on the nowcasting technique is calculated.

Embodiment 3

[0041] The 0-6h quantitative precipitation forecast based on the numerical model in S2 is provided by BJ-RUC;

[0042] The BJ-RUC system is a 3-hour period rapid update cycle forecast system based on the three-dimensional variational assimilation technology and the WRF-ARW model. —The RUC system performs three-dimensional variational assimilation every 3 hours. The assimilated data include global observation data obtained from the real-time database of the meteorological information center, such as global sounding, ground, ship, and aircraft, as well as regional automatic station data and ground-based global positioning system precipitable water Quantitative data are assimilated every 3 hours for 24-hour forecasting, and the output interval of forecast products is 1 hour, thus obtaining hourly model quantitative precipitation forecasting.

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Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of rainfall forecasting, and in particular, relates to a fusion rainfall forecasting method based on multi-model integration, wherein the method comprises the steps: firstly, identifying a falling area of mesoscale mode rainfall forecasting and an error of rainfall intensity, and correcting a position error of a numerical weather mode forecasting rainfall zone by utilizing a phase correction technology; and meanwhile, adjusting the rainfall intensity of the mode according to the rainfall observed in real condition. In a fusion algorithm, weight factors of hourly rainfall forecasting of nowcasting and corrected mode forecasting are determined by a hyperbola function, and the weight of a numerical mode forecasting result is gradually increased along with the prolonging of forecasting time efficiency. The method has the beneficial effects that compared with an existing traditional forecasting mode or a single neural network forecasting mode, the two methods are fused and complement each other, the falling area accuracy of numerical forecasting rainfall is improved, and the accuracy of nowcasting rainfall intensity is also improved. Great economic benefits and social benefits are expected to be realized on meteorological accurate forecast and meteorological disaster prevention.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of rainfall forecasting, in particular to a fusion precipitation forecasting method based on multi-model integration. Background technique [0002] At present, the short-term nowcasting technology based on radar observation and echo identification, tracking, and extrapolation cannot provide high-quality forecasts for the development and evolution of convective weather systems over 2 hours, while mesoscale numerical models are useful in short-term forecasting of convective-scale quantitative precipitation. The big shortcoming is that the integration of nowcasting and numerical forecasting has become the most important way and means to provide effective forecasting of convective scale weather systems, especially convective heavy precipitation 0-6h. [0003] This program proposes a fusion precipitation forecasting method based on multi-model integration. By assigning weights in real time, the deep neural networ...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G01W1/10G06F30/20
CPCG01W1/10G06F30/20Y02A90/10
Inventor 徐年平龚勋
Owner 武汉超碟科技有限公司
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