Fusion rainfall forecasting method based on multi-model integration

A multi-model and numerical forecasting technology, applied in weather condition forecasting, meteorology, measuring devices, etc., can solve problems such as the inability to provide high-quality forecasts of convective weather systems, improve forecasting effects, improve accuracy of landing areas, and improve accuracy sexual effect

Pending Publication Date: 2021-08-17
武汉超碟科技有限公司
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AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0002] At present, the short-term nowcasting technology based on radar observation and echo identification, tracking, and extrapolation cannot provide high-quality forecasts for the development and evolution of convective weather systems over 2 hours, while mesoscale numerical models are useful in short-te

Method used

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  • Fusion rainfall forecasting method based on multi-model integration
  • Fusion rainfall forecasting method based on multi-model integration
  • Fusion rainfall forecasting method based on multi-model integration

Examples

Experimental program
Comparison scheme
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Example Embodiment

[0029] Example one

[0030] S2 quantitative precipitation estimation calculation scheme specific steps are as follows:

[0031] (1) Interpret the radar quantitative precipitation estimate (Grid Data) to the automatic station site.

[0032] (2) Calculate the precipitation "observation increment E" of each observation site, that is, the radar quantitative precipitation estimation and the deviation of the automatic station precipitation observation.

[0033] (3) Use the CRESSMAN to analyze the deviation incremental Calculation

[0034]

[0035] In the form of Indicates the weight of the site value of the site value within the radius, D is the spacing of the site and the grid point, less than affecting the radius r, R, and is 10KM, which is 10 times the grid.

[0036] (4) Using the calculated grid deviation increment, correct the radar quantitative precipitation estimation, resulting in the quantitative precipitation estimation of the fusion radar and automatic station observation,...

Example Embodiment

[0038] Example 2

[0039] The 0-6H quantitative precipitation prediction calculation scheme based on the adjacent forecast technique is based on the original forecast of 0-2h. By adjusting the "external push" algorithm and parameters, the echo forecast is extended to 6h, and then Using a local ZR relationship, calculate 0-6H quantitative precipitation forecast based on adjacent forecasting techniques.

Example Embodiment

[0040] Example three

[0041] S2 in the 0-6H quantitative precipitation forecast for numeric mode is provided by bj-ruc;

[0042] The BJ-RUC system is based on 3-dimensional variable-dependent technology and WRF-ARW mode. The 3 H cycle rapid update cycle forecast system is 3-re-socket. The resolution is 27, 9 and 3km, 3km resolution, BJ, BJ -RUC system performs three-dimensional variationalization every 3 hours, and assimilation materials include global observations, terrestrial, ship, airlines, etc. obtained from the real-time database of meteorological information center, and regional automatic station data and foundation global positioning system. The quantity data, the 24h prediction is carried out every 3 h, and the product output interval is 1 h, thereby obtaining a time-to-time quantitative precipitation forecast.

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Abstract

The invention relates to the technical field of rainfall forecasting, and in particular, relates to a fusion rainfall forecasting method based on multi-model integration, wherein the method comprises the steps: firstly, identifying a falling area of mesoscale mode rainfall forecasting and an error of rainfall intensity, and correcting a position error of a numerical weather mode forecasting rainfall zone by utilizing a phase correction technology; and meanwhile, adjusting the rainfall intensity of the mode according to the rainfall observed in real condition. In a fusion algorithm, weight factors of hourly rainfall forecasting of nowcasting and corrected mode forecasting are determined by a hyperbola function, and the weight of a numerical mode forecasting result is gradually increased along with the prolonging of forecasting time efficiency. The method has the beneficial effects that compared with an existing traditional forecasting mode or a single neural network forecasting mode, the two methods are fused and complement each other, the falling area accuracy of numerical forecasting rainfall is improved, and the accuracy of nowcasting rainfall intensity is also improved. Great economic benefits and social benefits are expected to be realized on meteorological accurate forecast and meteorological disaster prevention.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of rainfall forecasting, in particular to a fusion precipitation forecasting method based on multi-model integration. Background technique [0002] At present, the short-term nowcasting technology based on radar observation and echo identification, tracking, and extrapolation cannot provide high-quality forecasts for the development and evolution of convective weather systems over 2 hours, while mesoscale numerical models are useful in short-term forecasting of convective-scale quantitative precipitation. The big shortcoming is that the integration of nowcasting and numerical forecasting has become the most important way and means to provide effective forecasting of convective scale weather systems, especially convective heavy precipitation 0-6h. [0003] This program proposes a fusion precipitation forecasting method based on multi-model integration. By assigning weights in real time, the deep neural networ...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G01W1/10G06F30/20
CPCG01W1/10G06F30/20Y02A90/10
Inventor 徐年平龚勋
Owner 武汉超碟科技有限公司
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