Ultra-short-term wind power combined prediction method and system

A wind power forecasting and combined forecasting technology, applied in forecasting, neural learning methods, instruments, etc., can solve the problems that the input features cannot track the forecast error, and the input features cannot be updated in time, so as to improve the forecast error distribution and improve the forecast accuracy , the effect of narrowing the fluctuation range

Pending Publication Date: 2021-10-15
CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RES INST +1
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Problems solved by technology

Due to the accumulation of rolling forecast errors and sudden changes in the trend of wind power changes, as well as the fact that the input features cannot be updated in time during the long-term short-term memory network forecasting process, the input features cannot track the trend of wind power changes.

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  • Ultra-short-term wind power combined prediction method and system
  • Ultra-short-term wind power combined prediction method and system
  • Ultra-short-term wind power combined prediction method and system

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Embodiment Construction

[0049] The following will clearly and completely describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments are only some, not all, embodiments of the present invention. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by persons of ordinary skill in the art without making creative efforts belong to the protection scope of the present invention.

[0050] The purpose of the present invention is to provide an ultra-short-term wind power combination prediction method and system, which can improve the distribution of prediction errors and improve the prediction accuracy.

[0051] In order to make the above objects, features and advantages of the present invention more comprehensible, the present invention will be further described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific emb...

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Abstract

The invention relates to an ultra-short-term wind power combined prediction method and a system thereof. The method comprises the following steps: training a long-short-term memory network by utilizing wind power output historical data; training an extreme learning machine by using the numerical weather forecast data; according to the predicted value of the long-short-term memory network, the predicted value of the extreme learning machine, the wind power, the numerical weather forecast data, the wind speed variation and the rolling prediction step number of the long-short-term memory network, determining historical similar moments of which the similarity with the numerical weather forecast data at the moment to be predicted is greater than a similarity threshold by adopting a weighted grey correlation algorithm; according to the predicted values of the two models corresponding to the historical similar moments, the wind power, the numerical weather forecast data and the actual wind power output data, adopting a time-varying adaptive coefficient method to determine combined prediction weight parameters of the two models, and then determining a combined prediction model; and predicting the wind power at the prediction moment according to the combined prediction model. The method can improve prediction error distribution and improve prediction precision.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of wind power forecasting, in particular to an ultra-short-term wind power combination forecasting method and system. Background technique [0002] As an important part of renewable energy, wind power is developing rapidly in China, but the inherent randomness and intermittency of its natural energy properties also pose a huge challenge to ensure the stability and reliability of the power system. Accurate and reliable wind power forecasting can not only improve the penetration rate of wind power, but also play an important role in the reliable and stable operation of the power system and the improvement of the economical operation of the power grid. [0003] The wind power forecasting methods at home and abroad can be mainly divided into physical methods and statistical methods. The physical method usually obtains meteorological information such as forecast wind speed, wind direction, and temperature in numerical wea...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06N3/04G06N3/08
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06N3/08G06N3/044
Inventor 仲悟之崔杨赵钰婷李崇钢李芳王丹丹
Owner CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RES INST
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