Prediction method for reliability of thermoelectric generating set
A technology for thermal power generating units and forecasting methods, applied in forecasting, electrical digital data processing, special data processing applications, etc., can solve the problems of lack of suitable methods and systems, unplanned outages of thermal power generating units, etc., to achieve reliable performance, optimization of maintenance
Active Publication Date: 2011-07-20
SHANGHAI POWER EQUIP RES INST +2
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Problems solved by technology
The existing statistical methods for the reliability of thermal power generating units are still unable to quantitatively predict the number of unplanned outages of thermal power generating units in the next few years during the use stage, and the number of unplanned outages of thermal power generating units in actual operation is out of control
At present, there is no suitable method and system available for the quantitative prediction of the unplanned outage times of thermal power generating units
Method used
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Embodiment
[0029] A certain type of 600MW thermal power generating unit with steam parameters of 16.7MP / 538°C / 538°C will be put into operation soon. use figure 1 The reliability prediction system and image 3 The calculation software for predicting the number of unplanned outages of the thermal power generation units shown runs on the reliability calculation server of the thermal power generation units of the power generation company or power generation enterprise. For the reliability prediction of this type of 600MW thermal power unit, use figure 2 The flow chart of the reliability prediction of the thermal power generating set is shown, and the reliability prediction result of this type of 600MW thermal generating set is obtained.
[0030] Step 1: Input the number of unplanned outages UOT(t i ) Taiwan's annual average statistical results are 17, 13, 7, 7, 7, 5, 4, 3, 2, 3, 2, 2;
[0031] Second step: Utilize the thermal power generating set reliability prediction database 1 that t...
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The invention relates to a reliability predicting method for a thermal power generating unit, which is characterized in that a calculation software for predicting unplanned outage times of the thermal power generating unit is programmed in C language, and runs on a calculation server for the thermal power generating unit, the undetermined parameters of a calculation model for unplanned outage times are determined; the unplanned outage times UOT (ti)of the thermal power generating unit are predicted; the evaluation basis value UOT Alpha of the unplanned outage times is determined, and the quantitative evaluation for the reliability of the thermal power generating unit is determined. The reliability predicting system has the advantages that the unplanned outage times of the thermal power generating unit can be predicted, and the computer on-line quantitative prediction and the quantitative evaluation of the thermal power generating unit reliability can be realized.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention relates to a reliability prediction method and system for a thermal power generating set using the number of unplanned outages as an evaluation index, which is applied to the quantitative prediction and quantitative evaluation of the reliability of the thermal power generating set, and belongs to the technical field of the thermal generating set. Background technique [0002] Power production centers on reliability and aims at economical operation. The high number of unplanned outages indicates that the reliability of thermal power generation units is poor, and the goal of economical operation cannot be realized. In the evaluation method of thermal power plants reaching the standard and creating first-class standards, the reliability of thermal power generating units is evaluated by the number of unplanned outages UOT. The larger the UOT, the worse the reliability of thermal generating units. In the use phase, the existing thermal power ...
Claims
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IPC IPC(8): G06F17/50G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCY02E60/76Y04S40/22Y02E60/00
Inventor 史进渊胡小正邓志成左晓文杨宇王兴平周宏吴茜
Owner SHANGHAI POWER EQUIP RES INST