An optimization method for the expected value of one-time flushing amount of debris flow and its application

Abstract

The invention discloses an optimization method of an expected value of one-time flow volume of a debris flow and an application thereof. The optimization method comprises the following steps of: determining time period (n years) and recurrence period (Ti year, i=1, 2, ......, m) of calculation of the expected value according to application requirements, then adopting a calculation method to respectively get occurrence probability P(Ti, n) of the debris flow and the one-time flow volume Q(Ti) of the debris flow in every recurrence period in n years, then adopting a cubic polynomial to fit a relational expression Q(P(n)) between the Q(Ti) and the P(Ti, n), and finally performing integration on the probability of the Q(P(n)) to get the expected value E(Q(n)) of the one-time flow volume of the debris flow in the n years. Compared with the prior art, according to the optimization method disclosed by the invention, the calculation way is adopted to get the flow volume and probability data; and furthermore, and data used as the basis of calculation is easy to get, so that the calculation of the expected value of the one-time flow volume of the debris flow becomes practical and easy to popularize, and the optimization method is suitable for engineering practical application; and simultaneously, according to the method, the time period of the expected value of the one-time flow volume of the debris flow is expanded from 1 year in the past to n years, so that the method has wider uses.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to an optimal calculation method for the expected value of one-time discharge of debris flow, in particular to the method of obtaining the discharge data and occurrence probability data required for the calculation of the expected value of one-time discharge of debris flow by a calculation method, and then calculating the expected value method, and its application in engineering design and analysis of debris flow disaster prevention and control. Background technique [0002] Debris flow disaster is one of the common types of geological disasters, often causing huge loss of life and property. In December 1999, a debris flow occurred along the Caribbean coast of northern Venezuela, about 1.8×10 6 m 3 The mudslide rushed into the urban area, causing more than 26,000 houses to be destroyed, and another 100,000 houses were damaged to varying degrees. Losses as high as $10 billion. On August 8, 2010, a debris flow occurred i...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] However, there is no practical calculation method for the expected value of one-time outflow of debris flow, the main reason is that the scale and probability data required for the calculation of expected value of one-time outflow of debris flow are not yet operable and easy for engineers to obtain.

In the past, field observation methods (such as long-term observation of Jiangjiagou debris flow in Dongchuan, Yunnan) or disaster history restoration methods (such as accumulation age analysis, tree age analysis) were mainly used to obtain scale and frequency data, and the annual frequency of occurrence was approximated as the annual probability of occurrence. However, due to the difficulty in obtaining measured data and the high technical requirements for disaster history data collection, these two data acquisition methods are poor in operability and difficult to promote

At the same time, the practice of approximating the annual frequency of occurrence to the annual probability of occurrence makes the time period only limited to one year and cannot obtain the expected value in a longer time period

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