Transportation hazard prediction method for hazardous chemicals

Abstract

The invention discloses a transportation hazard prediction method for hazardous chemicals. The transportation hazard prediction method comprises four steps of forecast of near meteorological fields, calculation of condensation and dose fields, prediction of transportation hazards and selection of transportation routes. According to the transportation hazard prediction method, factors such as the accident liability of hazardous article, the transportation season, transportation time and inherent features of roads are comprehensively considered, an adjoint mode is adopted, effects of meteorological factors and terrain factors are considered, and the actual diffusion is accorded with, the hazard prediction efficiency is high, relatively accurate prediction results can be obtained through traditional evaluation methods of successive solution of diffusion equations, but selections of positions of accidents are multiple, roads are long usually, so that long time is certainly required for successive solution. Starting from protected objects, the adjoint mode can obtain hazard values through solving adjoint equations once, time for solving the adjoint equations is equal to that for solving diffusion equations.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of chemical safety, in particular to a hazard prediction method for transportation of dangerous chemicals. Background technique [0002] Of the 3,222 accidents involving hazardous chemicals that occurred in Europe from 1926 to 1997, 41% occurred during transportation; the proportion of transportation accidents in major cities of my country during 2002-2004 reached 32%. As a source of mobile risk, the transportation of hazardous chemicals poses a huge threat to the population, environment and economy along the transportation route. Once a transportation accident occurs, in addition to the casualties and property losses caused by the traffic accident itself, secondary injury accidents such as explosions and leakages that occur successively after the accident often bring more serious disasters. For example, on August 19, 2004, an accident occurred on a tank truck carrying 20 tons of liquefied petroleum gas on the Hangzh...

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Problems solved by technology

On March 29, 2005, due to a traffic accident on the Huaian section of the Beijing-Shanghai Expressway, a large amount of liquid chlorine in tanks on the vehicle leaked, resulting in 29 deaths and 456 serious injuries. More than 10,500 villagers were forced to evacuate, causing major economic losses. and environmental damage

There are many risk factors in the transportation of hazardous chemicals, multiple risks interact, and the risk is difficult to quantify. The risk distribution is directly related to the natural and human environment such as meteorology, terrain, nature of the underlying surface, population and distribution of important targets, and the meteorological conditions change with time and space. , since the hazard source also moves with time and space in the transportation of hazardous chemicals, the calculation of risk distribution is an inverse problem, and its model establishment and solution are very complicated

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