Prediction method for predicating collapse disaster position after earthquake

A prediction method and geographical location technology, applied in the direction of earthquake signal processing, etc., can solve problems affecting rescuers and material delivery, and achieve good prediction results

Active Publication Date: 2013-11-20
BEIJING NORMAL UNIVERSITY
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  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

The Lushan earthquake that occurred in Ya'an City, Sichuan Province on April 20, 2013 also triggered a large number of collapses and landslides, which blocked and cut off traffic, seriously affecting the delivery of rescuers and supplies
In the current research, the application of statistical analysis method and Newmark model are basically independent, and the existing technology only uses one of them for calculation and analysis

Method used

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  • Prediction method for predicating collapse disaster position after earthquake
  • Prediction method for predicating collapse disaster position after earthquake
  • Prediction method for predicating collapse disaster position after earthquake

Examples

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Embodiment 1

[0116] The following will take Wenchuan County, Sichuan Province, my country as an example of the post-earthquake avalanche disaster analysis to specifically illustrate the method for constructing a prediction model of the post-earthquake avalanche disaster according to the present invention.

[0117]According to the data in the atlas of the "Space Remote Sensing Emergency Survey of Wenchuan Earthquake-stricken Areas" compiled by the Ministry of Land and Resources and the China Geological Survey, there were 1904 actual collapse points in Wenchuan County after the earthquake. In the binary Logistic regression analysis, the factors of these points The variable is assigned a value of 1, indicating the collapse point. For non-slip points, in this embodiment, the create random points tool in ArcGIS is used to randomly generate them. Considering the uncertainty of the distribution of the actual collapse point in a certain area, the embodiment, for example, takes the actual collapse ...

Embodiment 2

[0175] In this example, the ROC curve is used to verify the forecasting effect of the forecast model formula I-8 established in Example 1 when it is applied to Beichuan County, Sichuan Province.

[0176] Beichuan Qiang Autonomous County is located in the northwest of Sichuan Basin. Geographical coordinates: 31°35′-31°38′2″ north latitude, 104°26′15″-104°29′10″ east longitude. It borders Jiangyou City in the east, An County in the south, Mao County in the west, Songpan and Pingwu in the north , covering an area of ​​2867.83 square kilometers.

[0177] According to the occurrence probability model formula I-8 of post-earthquake avalanches and landslide disasters established according to embodiment 1 of the invention, the process of earthquake-induced avalanche and landslide disaster occurrence probability prediction process in Beichuan County area is mainly divided into three parts: obtaining geographical parameters, geological parameters and seismic parameters , calculate the ...

Embodiment 3

[0188] The post-earthquake avalanche disaster analysis in Beichuan County, Sichuan Province, my country will be taken as an example below to specifically illustrate the method for constructing a prediction model for post-earthquake avalanche disasters according to the present invention.

[0189] First, obtain various relevant parameters of Beichuan County and determine the Newmark displacement Dn based on the Newmark displacement calculation model.

[0190] For specific steps, refer to the relevant content of embodiment 2, and the calculation results are as follows Figure 12 shown.

[0191] Then, based on the 617 actual collapse points in Beichuan and 617 randomly generated non-collapse points outside the range of 200m from the actual collapse points in Beichuan County, the dependent variable of the collapse points was assigned a value of 1, and the The dependent variable of the point assignment is assigned a value of 0, and using the obtained various geographical parameters...

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Abstract

The invention provides a predication method for predicating a collapse disaster position after earthquake. The predication method comprises the steps that multiple basic geographic parameters, multiple geological parameters, earthquake parameters, the geographic position of at least one known collapse site and the geographic positions of multiple non-collapse sites of the space to be predicted are obtained; Newmark displacement Dn is computed on the basis of the Newmark displacement model; a binary Logistic regression equation is constructed according to the distance between the predicted position and a river, the distance between the predicted position and a fracture zone, the topographic relief and the Newmark displacement Dn; by taking the parameters of the known collapse site and the non-collapse sites and the computed Newmark displacement Dn as the known conditions, the partial regression coefficient of each independent variable factor in the regression equation is computed; and the computed partial regression coefficients are utilized to construct the collapse disaster prediction model of the space to be predicated.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the technical field of disaster reduction and prevention after an earthquake and risk assessment of disasters, and more specifically, the present invention relates to a method for predicting the location of landslide disasters after an earthquake. Background technique [0002] Earthquake, as a destructive disaster, poses a great threat to human life and property safety. While strong earthquakes cause damage to structures on the ground, they also often induce secondary disasters. Especially in mountainous areas, earthquakes often trigger a large number of secondary geological disasters. The occurrence of these disasters such as collapses, landslides, and debris flows has aggravated the earthquake losses, and the losses caused sometimes even exceed the direct losses caused by the earthquake itself. The post-earthquake collapse and landslide disasters are the first type of geological disasters triggered after the earthqua...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G01V1/28
Inventor 王瑛史培军刘连友李娟
Owner BEIJING NORMAL UNIVERSITY
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