Method for estimating time variant failure rate of relay protection device based on Rayleigh distribution

A relay protection device and failure rate technology, which is applied in computing, electrical digital data processing, special data processing applications, etc., can solve the problem of affecting the accuracy of the model, unable to fully describe the failure characteristics of the relay protection device, and the difficulty of determining the state transition rate. increase, etc.

Inactive Publication Date: 2014-01-08
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +2
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Problems solved by technology

With the increase of the state quantity of the Markov model, it is more difficult to determine the state transition rate, which affects the accuracy of the model.
Since the Markov model based on the constant failure rate requires that the failure characteristics obey the exponential distribution, but in fact, only the occasional failure approximately obeys the exponential distribution, and a large part of the failure of the relay protection device is caused by aging, so the assumption of a constant failure rate does not Cannot fully describe the failure characteristics of relay protection devices

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  • Method for estimating time variant failure rate of relay protection device based on Rayleigh distribution
  • Method for estimating time variant failure rate of relay protection device based on Rayleigh distribution
  • Method for estimating time variant failure rate of relay protection device based on Rayleigh distribution

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Embodiment

[0023] Embodiment: Statistically the power grid relay protection data of a certain area from January 1, 2000 to January 1, 2010 are as follows: In 2000, 434 relay protection devices were newly put into operation, among which the number of relay protection devices damaged due to accidental failure The number of relay protection devices damaged due to aging failure is 35, and the number of relay protection devices is 68, and the statistical time is 10 years, that is, 3653 days. Among them, the failure time of the relay protection device damaged due to aging failure is as follows (as shown in Table 2):

[0024] Table 2 Failure time of aging failure device

[0025]

[0026]

[0027] 2) When the failure mode is accidental failure, use the estimation method of constant failure rate to estimate the failure rate λ 0

[0028] Since the failure rate of accidental failure is approximately constant, it can be realized by using the maximum likelihood estimation method. The result ...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a method for estimating the time variant failure rate of a relay protection device based on Rayleigh distribution. The method comprises the following steps that (1) failure data of the relay protection device are obtained and whether the obtained failure data are accidental failure data or aging failure data is judged; (2) when the failure mode is an accidental failure mode, the accidental failure rate is estimated through the estimating method of the constant failure rate; (3) when the failure mode is an aging failure mode, the aging failure rate is estimated through the estimating method of the time variant failure rate; (4) the overall time variant failure rate of the relay protection device is estimated, and the overall time variant failure rate satisfies the equation that lambda (t)=lambda 0 + lambda 1 (t). The time variant failure rate of the relay protection device is estimated through different methods according to different failure modes. The method for estimating the time variant failure rate of the relay protection device based on Rayleigh distribution can be widely used in failure rate estimation of relay protection devices.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for protecting a power system, in particular to a method for estimating the time-varying failure rate of a relay protection device based on Rayleigh distribution. Background technique [0002] The relay protection device is an important device to ensure the safe operation and reliable power supply of the power supply system. When the power grid fails, if the relay protection device cannot operate correctly, it will not only expand the failure of the power system, but may even cause the entire power grid to be paralyzed due to adverse chain reactions, resulting in large-scale power outages, which will affect people's normal life and economic development. and social stability are seriously affected. Therefore, ensuring the reliability of the relay protection device is a very important content to ensure the safe and stable operation of the power grid. The reliability analysis and research on the relay protection system ...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
Inventor 宋璇坤刘颖薛安成邹国辉肖智宏
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA
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