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Method for improving wind speed forecast accuracy

A technology of wind speed and accuracy, applied in the field of improving the accuracy of wind speed forecasting, can solve problems such as the inability to use business systems for long-term forecasting, and achieve the effects of improving wind speed forecasting accuracy, reducing the number of calculations, and improving efficiency

Active Publication Date: 2014-05-14
ZHONGNENG POWER TECH DEV
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Problems solved by technology

However, the above research on individual cases cannot be used for long-term forecasting of operational systems

Method used

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  • Method for improving wind speed forecast accuracy
  • Method for improving wind speed forecast accuracy
  • Method for improving wind speed forecast accuracy

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Embodiment Construction

[0046] The present invention provides a method for improving the accuracy of wind speed forecasting. According to the wind direction and wind energy, the characteristic months are derived, the optimal physical parameterization scheme suitable for different characteristic months is configured, and the output wind speed is corrected by BP neural network, thereby greatly improving the wind speed. forecast accuracy.

[0047] Such as figure 1 The flow chart of the method for improving the accuracy of wind speed forecast is shown, including the following steps:

[0048] Step 10: Deduce the characteristic month according to the wind direction and wind energy.

[0049] In this example, a certain area in Fujian is taken as the forecast area, referring to figure 2 , extracting the feature month mainly includes the following steps:

[0050] Step 101: Preliminarily classify the months in which the prevailing wind direction is consistent.

[0051] The same dominant wind direction mean...

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Abstract

The invention provides a method for improving the wind speed forecast accuracy. The method comprises the steps that A, according to the wind direction and wind energy, feature months are determined; B, according to historical meteorological data of each feature month and combined with WRF pattern calculation conducted on each feature month, a main program parameter scheme of a WRF pattern is determined; C, according to the determined main program parameter scheme, the forecast wind speed is calculated, correction is conducted combined with the BP nerve net, and therefore a wind speed forecast is obtained. Thus, an optimum physical parameterized scheme suitable for different feature months is configured through selection of the feature months, the output wind speed is corrected, and therefore the wind speed forecast accuracy is improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of weather forecasting, in particular to a method for improving the accuracy of wind speed forecasting. Background technique [0002] The key factor for accurate wind power prediction is the accuracy of wind speed forecast. At present, the method of wind power prediction is mainly to output meteorological elements from numerical weather forecasting, including wind speed, wind direction, temperature, pressure, and humidity, and to correct the results of numerical meteorology through statistical models to output forecast power. This method mainly relies on the correction of statistical models, and does not fundamentally carry out data mining on the results of numerical weather forecasting. [0003] Numerical meteorological forecasting generally adopts weather forecasting mode (WRF, Weather Research and Forecasting Mode), and the parameterization schemes that have a great influence on the results mainly includ...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F17/30
CPCG06F16/2453
Inventor 陈欣韩明朱志成申烛孟凯锋岳捷孙翰墨马龙姜源
Owner ZHONGNENG POWER TECH DEV
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