Daily electricity consumption prediction method based on artificial neural network

A technology of artificial neural network and forecasting method, which is applied in the field of load forecasting of power system, can solve problems such as difficult to achieve forecasting accuracy, achieve high innovation and improve management level

Inactive Publication Date: 2016-06-15
SHANGHAI MUNICIPAL ELECTRIC POWER CO
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Problems solved by technology

[0008] The power supply branch company undertakes the task of power supply in the area under its jurisdiction. Due to the rapid development of urban construction in the area under its jurisdiction in rec

Method used

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  • Daily electricity consumption prediction method based on artificial neural network
  • Daily electricity consumption prediction method based on artificial neural network
  • Daily electricity consumption prediction method based on artificial neural network

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Embodiment Construction

[0051] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments.

[0052] Artificial Neural Network (ANN), also known as the Connectionism Model or the Parallel Processing Model, is composed of a large number of simple neurons connected extensively. It is studied in modern neuroscience It reflects the basic characteristics of the human brain, but it is not a true description of the human brain, but an abstract simplification and simulation of it.

[0053] Therefore, the ANN is a network formed by connecting a large number of neurons in different levels and ways, and the connection weights between neurons are the basic learning units of the ANN.

[0054] if x 1 ,x 2 ,···,x j is the input signal of the neuron, w ij is the connection weight of the neuron, and is the threshold of the neuron, then the output y of the neuron j for:

[0055] y j = f ...

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Abstract

A daily electricity consumption prediction method based on an artificial neural network belongs to the power supply technology field. A topology structure of a neural network model comprises an input layer, a hidden layer and an output layer, and the learning rules of the neural network model are that: a parallel distribution processing model of an error back propagation algorithm is adopted, a steepest descent method is used, and the weight and the threshold value of the network are adjusted continuously by the back propagation, so that the error sum of squares of the network is minimum. By the training sample learning, a prediction model can be established automatically and is hidden inside the artificial neural network, by using the electricity consumption prediction method in a short-term load predication, a time sequence model can be supplemented beneficially. The daily electricity consumption prediction method based on the artificial neural network can be widely used in the load predication and load management field of an electric power system.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of power supply, and in particular relates to a load forecasting method used in a power system. Background technique [0002] Load forecasting is the basis and premise of power system planning. [0003] With the rapid development of my country's economy and society and the rapid advancement of urbanization, cities have increasingly become important load centers, and the load forecasting work of urban power grids has attracted more and more attention. [0004] In recent years, the load forecasting methods of urban power grids have been continuously developed, and the load forecasting methods are also constantly changing. While meeting the needs of urban power grid planning and construction, it has strongly supported the scientific decision-making of urban power grid development. [0005] There are many factors that affect the change of urban power grid load. Compared with the large power grid load, the fluct...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 王颖韬朱佳佳朱江任丽佳吴静高靖宇
Owner SHANGHAI MUNICIPAL ELECTRIC POWER CO
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